DD on $MVST and $OSK: The Big Reveal is Monday

TL;DR: Microvast ($MVST) earnings are scheduled for this Monday, March 16 (after hours). The market thinks this is a distressed asset heading for insolvency and heavy dilution from an active At the Money Offering (ATM). Based on a forensic trace of NY court dockets and hyper-specific job requisitions, the reality is the exact opposite. Microvast has secured its balance sheet and (in my read of the circumstantial but highly suggestive evidence) is about to announce a massive Joint Venture/Licensing deal with Oshkosh Corporation ($OSK) to turn on the Clarksville factory and power Oshkosh's refuse trucks today, new robotic autonomous fleet tomorrow, and likely even the USPS delivery vehicles in 2027/2028.

Oh, and 28M shorts got caught with their pants down by the surprise earnings announcement yesterday afternoon. Things are about to get very spicy on Monday as everyone scrambles for position.

Here is the step-by-step breakdown of exactly how this turnaround was engineered, and why Monday is the catalyst.

– The Breaking Point: Clarksville & Clenera

To understand where we are, you have to look backwards. Post-SPAC from 2021-2023, Microvast was burning cash to build out their Clarksville, TN factory. When the DOE pulled a $200M grant, things got tight. But the real breaking point was Clenera. When the Clenera ESS project fell through and ended in a breach of contract lawsuit, Microvast was forced to halt Clarksville ramp up (recording a $64.9M impairment in mid-2024) and gutted their US headcount to a skeleton crew just to survive. They needed external funding to finish the factory, and they needed to buy time.

I'm going to skip over a ton of activity from 2023 and 2024, so let's jump straight to 2025. To set the stage, you must understand that Microvast only had ~$10M in US cash on hand at the end of Q3 2025, as shown in their 10-Q. Their global business has been booming, but the US faced going concern warnings despite improving revenue.

– Clenera Litigation and the Q4 2025 ATM

Throughout 2025, the Clenera litigation hung over the stock like a guillotine.

• Feb – July 2025: NY dockets show the initial battles, followed by months of silence.
• Oct 3, 2025: As the stock recovered, Microvast quietly activated their $125M ATM, raising an initial $12.6M.
• Oct 9, 2025: The AAA arbitrator issued a massive $36M ruling against Microvast, demanding they return the customer advance provided by Clenera. Because this was Material Non-Public Information (MNPI), Microvast had to legally pause the ATM.
• The October Rally: With the ATM off, the stock rallied on no news, running from $4.50 up to $7.12 by mid-October, before settling around $5.00 by earnings.
• The November Dump: On Nov 10, Q3 earnings dropped, revealing the AAA ruling. The stock plummeted back to $3.00 by December, and then bled to $2.00 just recently. Behind the scenes, Microvast was forced to run the ATM hard through November (raising an estimated ~$50M) to salvage their cash bridge to 2026.

– The Dec 3 Turning Point & CEO Yang Wu's Leverage

On December 3, 2025, the AAA made its final ruling on interest and fees for the money owed to Clenera. You would think this was the end, but it was actually the turning point.

Why didn't Clenera just force Microvast into Chapter 11? Because of CEO Yang Wu. Wu holds a $25M convertible loan secured by a first-priority lien on substantially all US assets. If Clenera (an unsecured creditor) forces bankruptcy, Wu gets the IP and the factory, and Clenera gets $0.

This leverage forced Clenera to the negotiating table. Shortly after this Dec 3 ruling, Microvast started aggressively posting job requisitions for US operations. You do not re-hire your US corporate team unless you have a forward-looking guarantee of cash flow.

– The Smoking Gun: M&A and JV Job Reqs

These job reqs weren't for factory line workers. They were and are highly specific M&A and deal-structuring roles.

• Senior IP Counsel: Explicitly to "Support IP valuation, due diligence, and risk analysis for M&A, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships."
• Senior Corporate Accountant: Tasked with "multi-entity consolidations… and Fixed Assets (CIP)." (i.e., Carving out the Clarksville assets for a JV).
• The CAO (Eric Garcia): Hired on Jan 9. His background? Project finance and JVs at NextDecade. His job req explicitly included: "Acquisition Due Diligence… pre-close integration planning, post-close decentralized accounting activities…"

You don't hire an M&A accountant and a JV IP lawyer to sell batteries. You hire them to structure a corporate transaction.

– The Silence & The Feb 12 Stipulation

Through January and early February, Microvast went radio silent. No 8-Ks, except one to announce the hire of CAO Garcia and promotion of CFO Worthen. No 8-Ks means no more ATM selling.

Then, on February 12, 2026, a stipulation hit the NY County Supreme Court docket. Clenera and Microvast agreed to hold the case in abeyance, with a final settlement payment to be made on or before July 15, 2026.

Why would Microvast agree to a hard July 15 deadline to pay up to $43M when their organic cash flow doesn't cover that? Because they have clear line-of-sight to a massive capital injection arriving before July.

– Enter Oshkosh

This sets the stage perfectly for Microvast's long-time partner and investor: Oshkosh Corporation (OSK). The breadcrumbs lead straight from Clarksville to Murfreesboro.

– The Republic Services Backlog & The Tariff Trap

Oshkosh and Microvast go way back to the original SPAC PIPE ($25M injection + Joint Development Agreement). This contributed to the sole supplier arrangement and integration of Microvast MV-C packs in the Volterra ZSL electric refuse truck, a product anchored by orders from Republic Services (RSG). These trucks use 12-16 packs each, so ~500-664 kWh of batteries.

• The Rollout: 50 trucks in 2024, 100 more in 2025.
• Import Numbers: There is proof from import logs that Microvast has been sending their MV-C packs to Clarksville, staged for last minute delivery to Murfreesboro and the ZSL factory. November 2025 showed a huge burst in imports, despite high tariffs.
• The Problem: RSG recently guided in their Q4 2025 earnings call for ~300+ total EVs by the end of 2026 (meaning a slow ramp of ~150 more this year). Why so slow?
• The Tariff Trap: Between 2024 and 2026, tariffs on Chinese battery imports climbed to 48.4% (Base + Sec 301). Furthermore, imported packs don't qualify for the $45/kWh IRA tax credit. This results in an estimated $60k margin penalty per truck for Oshkosh. RSG is softening demand to age their diesel fleet until the EV economics make sense. A domesticated supply chain (Clarksville) is the only mathematical way Oshkosh solves this.
• NGDV?: Note that Oshkosh doesn't only need batteries for refuse trucks. They need about 1400 MWh of batteries a year for 3 years, solely for the initial order of battery electric USPS delivery vehicles. Those cannot use China-produced cells, however, tariffs or no tariffs.

– Oshkosh's $500M Cash Hoard

If you read Oshkosh’s latest 10-K and listen to their earnings call, they are telegraphing this bailout:

• The Cash: Oshkosh is sitting on an unusually high cash hoard of $479.8M. Usually they've carried only $100M-$200M forward, quarter to quarter.
• The Tariffs: CFO Matt Field explicitly stated on the earnings call that they expect to "fully offset the impact of tariffs by year-end" of 2026 (a $200M headwind). You cannot offset $200M in tariffs by tightening your belt. You do it by localizing battery production.
• The CapEx: Field noted they are investing $150M in 2026 to "increase capacity/throughput."
• The Risk Factor: A new risk factor appeared in the 2025 10-K compared to 2024. Not definitive, but highly suggestive.
  • Our capacity expansion plans may take longer or cost more than we expect or may not achieve the benefits we anticipate.
  • We are pursuing initiatives to expand and optimize our manufacturing capacity. Such initiatives may include facility expansions or reconfigurations, capital investments in equipment and automation, workforce hiring and training, supplier capacity development and the implementation of new processes or systems…
• The Tax Benefits: Oshkosh is a highly profitable, mature industrial giant with a massive US tax bill. They can utilize 100% bonus depreciation on qualifying capital investments based on the changes from the 2025 OBBBA legislation. This immediately derisks a huge amount of their investment on Day 1.

– Patents, Autonomy, and Project Athena

Here is the final line of evidence that this is a Joint Venture. Oshkosh isn't just buying a battery factory, they are buying an entire robotics power platform.

• The JLG Connection: Oshkosh's JLG division is heavily pivoting to autonomy (recently acquiring Canvas robotics). They showed off the AMCR (Autonomous Mobile Charging Robot) and the Galileo smart telehandler at CES 2025.
• The Factory AMRs: Oshkosh wants to use heavy-duty AMRs to dynamically move fire truck chassis through their Pierce factories to unblock a 36-month backlog. You can find 199 pages of patent application content to prove this under US 2025/0346304 A1.
• The Microvast Hires: In January, Microvast hired Benjamin Seibert (an industrial robotics expert) as 'Director of Project Athena'. On Feb 21, Microvast posted four highly specific roles for in Florida (Power Electronics, Embedded Software, Mechatronics, AI/ML). The required skills? ROS (Robot Operating System), high-voltage motor drives, multi-DoF robotics, and time-series battery AI.

The match is 1-to-1. Oshkosh has been hiring the vehicle controls engineers, Microvast is hiring the battery robotics engineers. They are co-developing a universal powertrain design for both the electrified job site and also Oshkosh's own factories.

– The Bridge to Full Cell Production in Clarksville

Clarksville is the center of this story, and here is why the factory can actually start up sooner than you might think.

• A Bridge to 2027: Huzhou 3.2 (the massive new 2000 MWh capacity expansion in China) is coming online right now (H1 2026).
• Cells vs Modules/Packs: Ramping up Clarksville cell production will be expensive and slow. But module and pack assembly is faster and cheaper.
• Imported Equipment: Microvast imported 'Laser Welder' and 'Thermal Paste' packing equipment to Clarksville just this month (March 7). They clearly have a strategy to use Huzhou 3.2 as fuel to kickstart the US operations. They are not waiting for the US cell lines to begin producing, they are importing high-quality cells to pack in Clarksville almost immediately, earning the $10/kWh IRA credit now, and the full $45/kWh credit later.

– The Launch Vehicle

For a Joint Venture like this one, Oshkosh needs a clean entity to invest their capital in. All of the litigation and liens need to stay with the parent company and other subsidiaries like Microvast Inc or Microvast Energy.

The final piece of the puzzle is a special purpose vehicle (SPV) designed for this. On April 14, 2025, 'Microvast Technology, LLC' was registered in Delaware.

My read of this is that Microvast Technology is the new subsidiary that makes all this possible.

– Conclusion: The Monday Setup

Microvast has successfully bridged the 2025 liquidity gap, countered the Clenera threat until July, and spent the last 90 days aggressively staffing up an M&A/Audit team and preparing the ground for an autonomous robotics division.

With earnings dropping Monday, March 16 (after hours), the stage is set for the ultimate deal announcement: a clean 10-K, a structured Clenera settlement, and a definitive Joint Venture with Oshkosh that turns Clarksville into a productive asset, 5 years later. The fact that they are reporting on time (after two years of NT 10-Ks and delays) means CAO Garcia already handed the auditors undeniable proof of a 12-month cash runway. Auditors don't lift going concern warnings based on hopes and dreams, they lift them when they see a signed Term Sheet and a massive cash balance.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice, I hold 90k shares in $MVST. A wiser man would've sold when it hit $7 – but I'm holding for $17+ once Clarksville is live. You do you.