Wti Oil down this morning to $93-$95 and Brent down to $101. My thesis is that the market is being far too complacent.
A tanker leaving the Persian Gulf for China would take 20-30 days travel time + unloading time from there. The last tankers to leave before the war started have still not completed transit.
With the lag time + IEA draw down + existing stocks the shit storm hasn’t made landfall. Some time next week or the week after the first tankers stranded by the straits of Hormuz will start not arriving in Asia.
Current middle east spots are trading 20-30 dollars over next month Us and Brent futures. That slow motion ripple effect will be hitting soon.
Position and Disclosure: I am a retail trader not a financial advisor. I have no insider knowledge of the oil industry. I am holding USO and BNO calls and unrelated CVNA puts and a small stock basket
BFLO-Retail
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1rvb7u0
Posted by BFLO-Retail
7 Comments
Man you are gonna lose all your initial profit on this… don’t go down with your ship brother take your W and look for more opportunities elsewhere with it.
I think you got tunnel vision on oil from the rush of initial success. Prices on oil and tanker nonsense can wipe you out in a day after hours if news is good.
based. following.
I’m long USO
As well as XOM and APD for helium exposure
PSRHF is my helium moon shot. The supply crunch hasn’t even started. Data centers and medical are going to be competing top dollar for helium.
https://preview.redd.it/qvr2kuxe8fpg1.png?width=460&format=png&auto=webp&s=11f3a7c85b6cfb9592bec97436a321cbe9bde46c
My thesis which was developed after reading your thread.
$bno because there will bno oil.
Great thesis. Increased my UCO calls today as well. Also, have SPY puts. Obviously, the investors are oblivious!
I just put 10k in BNO. The price doesn’t make sense at the momment. I think 150 over the next few weeks is a given.