Swung a Decent-Sized Hammer on $SOC – Drill Baby Drill 🛢️🚀

The Setup A year ago, I dug into a 13(f) filing from one of the few investors I actually respect and found a massive value play: $SOC (Sable Offshore Corp). The underlying oil assets were worth ~$30 a share, but the stock was dragged down by California's regulatory chokehold. I made a bet that federal authority would eventually overrule the state courts.

Last Friday, I was proven right. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to get this oil flowing and stabilize the markets.

The Back-of-the-Napkin Math Here is the conservative breakdown of fair value:

• The Output: Once fully ramped (targeted April 2026), they’ll produce 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• The Revenue: 50,000 barrels * $70/barrel * 360 days = $1.26 Billion in annual gross revenue.
• The Cash Flow: The infrastructure is already built, making operations incredibly cheap. Assuming a conservative 50% net margin, that’s $630 Million in annual cash flow.
• The Price Target: Apply a modest 8x multiple on that cash flow, subtract their current debt, and you get a fair value of roughly $35.00 per share.

It’s currently trading around $17. That’s a 100% gain just to reach base fair value.

Why This Goes to the Moon

• Federal Supremacy: The DPA legally steamrolls state-level whining. The government wants the oil; the government gets the oil.
• The Short Squeeze: Short interest is insanely high (~40%). These guys bet heavy on legal delays that the DPA just nuked. When "First Oil" hits in April, they are going to be forced to cover at whatever price we set.
• The Debt Refi: Because they weren't producing, Sable is stuck paying a brutal 15% interest rate. Once the oil flows, they can refinance to a standard 7% loan. That saves $70M+ a year in interest, which flows straight to equity value.

The "Infinite Glitch" Strategy I’ve got this tucked away in a tax-advantaged retirement account. When this hits $35 in two years, I am taking every single cent of those gains 100% tax-free. No capital gains, no Uncle Sam.

TL;DR: The federal government just forced a billion-dollar oil field to turn back on. The math points to $35. I’m holding until 2028.

Position: 3,000 shares at ~$7. Disclaimer: Not financial advice.