The first strikes hit Iran on February 28th, but three days before the operation, insiders were already quietly buying Bitcoin — pushing the price up 5% in a single session. BTC kept climbing for the first 20 days of the war, then gave back half of that "war premium" in just two days.
Those three weeks of upside were a bull trap, plain and simple. The big players got in three days before the war started, and they held the price steady when the first bombs dropped — I've marked those days with arrows on the chart. After that, it was just steady profit-taking, selling into the buyers the whole way up. There was no reason to keep buying.
Bitcoin — like any other market instrument — was never going to hold up against the inflationary pressure that a war like this brings. Higher inflation means the Fed can't cut rates, and when oil punches through $100 a barrel, consumer prices follow right behind it.
BTC is likely heading back down to early March levels as the war premium fades out completely. U.S. wholesale inflation came in at 3.4% yesterday — which means consumer inflation will probably follow that move higher down the road. And crypto will price that in the same way it always does: by dropping.
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Posted by tornavec