Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.
Energy infrastructure attacks and strikes on high-profile Iranian officials, including the killing of security chief Ali Larijani, mark an escalation that is slowing attempts to get commercial ships moving again, the person added, speaking anonymously to discuss private talks.
In practical terms, that means the UK, France and others have lost momentum for their push to escort vessels through the strait once the war stops, with no end in sight to the violence.
The sentiment is shared across Europe and the Middle East, according to people familiar with the talks. Officials are losing confidence that the US and Israel have an exit plan and see deeper economic disruptions ahead. In Brussels on Thursday, European Union leaders worried about a sustained price shock.
The assessment is a troubling development for Europe, which is trying to simultaneously cut energy costs, rebuild its militaries and increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. None of that works well if the Strait of Hormuz is crippling the economy.
“The real issue now is to assert Europe’s position in this increasingly challenging world and to ensure that we can keep pace, both in terms of our defense capabilities and our energy supply,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Thursday. “All of this is only possible with a strong economy.”
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman and Tehran’s embassy in London didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Widening War
At the outset of the war, Iran told regional intermediaries that it was willing to discuss a truce if it had guarantees there will be no further attacks on the country.
That possibility now seems elusive.
The war, headed into its fourth week, has killed more than 4,200 people across the region and effect
Rude_Judgment7928 on
I mean, what does the Straight being open really mean right now?
Sure Iran can say it’s open. The US can say it’s open. The US+Allies can put a million ships in the region to prevent mining operations.
Does any of that matter? If the chance that US/Israel bombs and Iranian asset exists, and the chance that Iran would retaliate with a drone strike on a ship. The straight will stay functionally closed.
A ceasefire with actual adherence from both sides for 30 days?
The only other option is an actual occupation of Iran by the US or a coalition.
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Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.
Energy infrastructure attacks and strikes on high-profile Iranian officials, including the killing of security chief Ali Larijani, mark an escalation that is slowing attempts to get commercial ships moving again, the person added, speaking anonymously to discuss private talks.
In practical terms, that means the UK, France and others have lost momentum for their push to escort vessels through the strait once the war stops, with no end in sight to the violence.
The sentiment is shared across Europe and the Middle East, according to people familiar with the talks. Officials are losing confidence that the US and Israel have an exit plan and see deeper economic disruptions ahead. In Brussels on Thursday, European Union leaders worried about a sustained price shock.
The assessment is a troubling development for Europe, which is trying to simultaneously cut energy costs, rebuild its militaries and increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. None of that works well if the Strait of Hormuz is crippling the economy.
“The real issue now is to assert Europe’s position in this increasingly challenging world and to ensure that we can keep pace, both in terms of our defense capabilities and our energy supply,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Thursday. “All of this is only possible with a strong economy.”
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman and Tehran’s embassy in London didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Widening War
At the outset of the war, Iran told regional intermediaries that it was willing to discuss a truce if it had guarantees there will be no further attacks on the country.
That possibility now seems elusive.
The war, headed into its fourth week, has killed more than 4,200 people across the region and effect
I mean, what does the Straight being open really mean right now?
Sure Iran can say it’s open. The US can say it’s open. The US+Allies can put a million ships in the region to prevent mining operations.
Does any of that matter? If the chance that US/Israel bombs and Iranian asset exists, and the chance that Iran would retaliate with a drone strike on a ship. The straight will stay functionally closed.
A ceasefire with actual adherence from both sides for 30 days?
The only other option is an actual occupation of Iran by the US or a coalition.
None of this is days away from being resolved.