I've got no real skin in the game other than some oil company exposure, but this very muted futures opening given everything that's at stake (even with TACO history), is very timid…. people should be spooked a bit more no?
I'm genuinely perplexed how oil futures are flat to down this evening…
byu/Rollingsound514 inoil
Posted by Rollingsound514
22 Comments
I was thinking the same! Will keep an eye on this thread
Always paper manipulation. Same thing with metals.
Asian buyers are running out of time to hedge May deliveries
I believe they want to give Iran every chance to surrender before they buy buy buy
My other theory is there is supply being added to the Chinese domestic market by their government which is dampening the explosion
Nevertheless I expect you’ll wake up and see strong green
It’s clearly being manipulated to keep it under $100. There is still no end in sight and Trump is flailing, the only way this ends is diplomatically and there doesn’t seem to be any diplomacy happening.
Manipulation.
Four letters- T.A.C.O.
Its unserious trading at this hour. buying opportunity. On friday too it gold sold to 92 initially and ended the day above 98.
US treasury shorting WTI with paper contracts to keep the price below 100.
It works, until it doesn’t. And at that point you can expect this shit to go vertical like a geezer with pent up demand (if trump hasn’t TACOd by then).
I think the majority of investors/traders think this war/conflict will be over soon. My feeling is just the opposite. I think it will get bigger and go on longer. Hope I am wrong.
Sometimes the futures can be calm but the day trade is not also Trump’s ultimatum timer isn’t up yet and I wouldn’t be surprised if either side starts attacking or Israel decides to start hitting more targets tonight while we sleep
Not a professional, but I don’t think oil traders are willing to take a bet on a high price if the war “winds down”. As it stands, oil futures will like hover in the $90 to $100 for a bit longer. Once it does fall, it’ll fall like a feather.
At the beginning of Iran blocking the strait, Trump said one of the strategies he was looking at was intervening in the futures market.
Straight up government manipulation.
They’ve also spoken key words several times, for headline purposes, to try to bring prices down. “Winding down” “almost over” “prices will drop soon” etc..
You had Chris Wright say that congress might even authorize “a second SPR release” which also caused some downward pressure.
100% manipulation – I think they are timing spikes to offload their equities to cash slowly. They already did this in 2022, now just doing it again. Friday was a massive red day after net selling for 3 days straight, will give relief for a day or two.
It could eventually do what silver did if things don’t get “resolved” soon.
Some traders will end up owing a lot of oil for more than they sold it for.
Maybe the expected disruption is already priced in with a mix of optimism that an off ramp still exists?
The US is threatening to leave and let others clean up this mess. Perhaps if the US actually left the area there would be less of a mess.
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-22/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-march-23?srnd=homepage-canada](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-22/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-march-23?srnd=homepage-canada)
Today’s price is for future contracts in May, and Friday the price was for future contracts in April
What’s important is the difference between physical oil and futures. Right now physical oil is trading at $30-40/bbl above futures. This means the market thinks the strait will open before those future contracts will deliver.
Its rig system
The powers that be, won’t be able to manipulate these lower prices forever…
As soon as either side blinks in this conflict, oil gaps back down to the 80’s and then trickles down to the 60’s over months.
Oil was $55 a barrel 6 months ago, it’s fundamentally not worth this much without a supply issue.