Been following this closely all week and wanted to share the Canadian angle because I think it's getting missed in most of the coverage.
Quick facts first. Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28th. Normally 20 million barrels a day go through it which is about 20% of global seaborne oil. Since the closure, 21 tankers have transited versus 100+ per day before. Brent hit $126. IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest in their history, and it covers about 20 days of normal flows. RBC Capital Markets called it the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s embargo.
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January. Central banks bought 863 tonnes in 2025. Third consecutive year of historically elevated buying.
Here's the part that matters for Canadian investors specifically, Canadian crude is priced in USD and exempt from energy tariffs. Every dollar of that $67 to $126 oil move lands directly on Canadian producers with zero tariff friction. The Council on Foreign Relations said it on CBC this week, the US cannot reshore manufacturing without Canadian resources. One third of Canada's trade war export recovery came from oil alone.
The way I'm thinking about it is oil sands producers for direct exposure, royalties for zero drilling risk with full price upside, gold names for the $4,500+ margin environment.
Risks are real though. Hormuz could resolve fast and oil drops hard. Gold just had its worst week in years. Know what you own.
Curious what people think on the Hormuz timeline — weeks or months?
Also been covering TSX and TSX-V value gaps with full models if that's your thing — The Venture Analyst on Substack, free to check out.
The Hormuz closure and what it actually means for Canadian energy
byu/Lettura_ inenergy
Posted by Lettura_
1 Comment
Everyone says “weeks or months?” What about “years?”
This could turn into a massive conflagration. It could destabilize not just Iran, but also Iraq and the Gulf States — and not only because of the economic damage. Foreign policy is driven by internal politics. For, say, Saudi Arabia, ignoring attacks could make them look weak. But openly siding with the US and Israel against Iran would likely be highly unpopular. This is why the Gulf states are responding so mildly to missile strikes.
In the worst case, we could see the whole region at war, facing insurgencies, etc, with attacks on government revenue sources (oil and gas) a common tactic.
It would probably trigger a major global recession, but, yes, it would be very profitable for Canadian and US oil and gas companies.