A few points to discuss on today’s market whiplash

1. A large percent of daily trading is done on algorithms that use many metrics, one being sentiment that analyzes keywords in major media outlets. As well as the obvious, the Presidents Truthsocial posts. So I would consider the whiplash as ai slop.
2. Put yourself in Irans shoes and really without any bias involved in any which way.

One side opened the conflict with major aggression and everyday headlines read as hitting harder than the previous day. Irans only ability to stand up against this aggression is the economical war and clearly it is a major position. So if you’re Iran and you’re seeing that your aggressor is able to effectively gaslight its economy you’re essentially powerless with power.

What I’m trying to say, and again just keep the bias out of this, one is a bully and one is a victim. The bully bullies when no one is looking and the victim has no voice.

The only option that becomes apparent to the victim is to fight as hard as it can with nothing left to lose. In my own personal opinion, the gaslighting is making the situation even worse.

If Iran already does not trust the US due to the attack during negotiations, this gaslighting signals more distrust.

1. The one key piece that will absolutely cause a free fall is still to Irans avail. And no I am not talking about electricity or water. I am talking about Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea. This is single handedly keeping the macro energy economics alive. The pipeline is able to max out at 7 million BPD which is a significant amount of what has been taken offline with the strait closed.

If you have paid attention closely you will know that the Yanbu port has been struck last week but did not cause any damage to port infrastructure.

Since then Saudi’s have raised their stature sternly.

*While no heads of any state is directly discussing this lifeline pipeline, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that both sides of the war have their attention on it*.

Saudi’s have shifted to a possibility of joining the war and an even lower-key happening is the UK and US emboldening the Saudi’s air defenses. The UK has military assets on the ground in SA and is moving an air defense destroyer to the area.

As of the last 48 hours SA has reported over 60 drone interceptions and several ballistic missiles. The global economy, for now, is resting on the Saudis air defenses.

Edit: just to make clear as possible as I attempt to tip-toe around emotional feelings around whose bad and whose good. The bully and victim discussion is to contextualize the (right now) atmosphere. It is not a political belief nor is the stock market analysis through geopolitics the place for me to make a stake in who I feel is bad and who I feel is good. It is simply contextualization. This is why I stress to remove any biases.