Trump posted about "very good and productive conversations" with Iran this weekend. Iran immediately denied any negotiations took place. The Strait is still mined as DIA confirmed Iranian-manufactured mines in the water. Their internal assessment puts the closure anywhere from one to six months. A Xeneta analyst told CNN that transiting the Strait is "completely off the charts for the rest of 2026."
The dollar didn't move. Oil pulled back on a Truth Social Post and not on ships actually moving again.
The key number that matters is the Kpler and S&P Global real-time vessel transit data for the Strait of Hormuz. Before the crisis it was 100+ ships per day. Since February 28th it's been 21 total. That number hasn't changed. Until it does the supply disruption is intact regardless of what gets posted on Truth Social.
The market is pricing a resolution while the shipping data is not corresponding.
I wrote a full breakdown on the energy trade last week — what's actually happening, why Canadian energy specifically benefits, and how to think about positioning through this. Covers the oil numbers, gold, Canada's leverage, and the risks in full including exactly this scenario where a headline creates a false resolution signal. Definitely a read if anyone's interested.
The market rallied on a Truth Social post while Iran denied the conversation ever happened.
byu/Lettura_ inenergy
Posted by Lettura_
4 Comments
Hmmm … thanks but the link is an article about Canadian household debt, tariffs, and CUSMA. It was also interesting.
I’ll tell you exactly why.
TACO trading.
None of this today had anything to do with the actual geopolitics, which if we’re all honest about it, is more about the petrodollar than it is anything else- nukes are a sideshow. Israel is a sideshow. Trump’s trying to protect the markets as best he can; it will fail spectacularly. American hegemony over taking its cut from the world’s oil supply is the main show here.
Why the fuck should the middle east – much less Iran, who we’ve sanctioned for years- settle its oil in dollars when 75-80% of it goes to the east/far east. Iran has every right to tell the USA to go fuck itself. We promised military security to the Saudis in the late 70’s for that deal- they settle in dollars, we provide security. When we stop providing security, or the middle east stops settling in dollars, that deal falls apart, and Iran knows it.
This isn’t going to end well for the USA. Sorry, it just won’t. Trump will claim some stupid victory, or he’ll do something REALLY stupid like put troops on the ground, and this will blow up even further.
This is far from over.
I noticed this. My take, Trump promised to obliterate the electric power plants in 48 hours when he posted on Saturday. Now, 48 hours he lies about talks with Iran to weasel out of his promise – TACO. He never had any intention of following through on the promise since was just a random thought that popped into his head so he posted it.
The world believes the word a jihadist, oppressive regime over the president of the United States. What a clown.