Everyone’s watching oil right now, which makes sense.
But if Hormuz disruption actually holds, the second-order effect seems way bigger than people are pricing in.
It’s not just oil moving.. a massive chunk (1/3) of global fertilizer production and logistics runs through that region, directly or indirectly.
From what I’ve been digging into:
- Natural gas -> nitrogen production gets tight fast
- Phosphate supply is already limited globally
- Fertilizer demand doesn’t drop (food still needs to be produced)
So oil spikes first… but fertilizer feels like it lags, then moves harder once shortages actually show up.
What’s weird is there are barely any US names to play this. Most global supply gets constrained, but domestic producers are relatively insulated.
Been looking at MOS and CF.
Not saying to do anything here, but this could be one of those setups people ignore until it’s too obvious and doesn't make sense anymore.
I bought 209 calls on MOS Sept 18th expiry 35 strike. Don't want to miss a move here.
If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer might be the sleeper trade
byu/Cueg inwallstreetbets
Posted by Cueg
16 Comments
Mos def bro
It’s better if you don’t trade based on Hormuz while orange dude is in charge. He is the master market manipulator and you will for sure lose money. Just go by fundamentals an invest in good companies
These moved weeks ago. Late to the party amigo.
ain’t checked but the way the farmers be talking it already spiked.
GRO
The interesting part isn’t just supply shock it’s inelastic demand.
You can delay consumption of oil.
You can’t delay food production.
That asymmetry is what makes this setup different.
You a week and 800 bombs dropped late brother
March 12 it was $31
Sometimes, there’s money in shit
Already ran.
Kevin o Leary aka Mr. wonderful stated this like last week
Fertilizer stocks and fertilizer itself is already running though
I am not certain but the fertilizer you buy at the store is already on shelves and warehouses for this season. Maybe not the winter grade but that’s probably already on the lines being packed into bags and shipping soon.
Source: I worked at home Depot for many years and there is snow on the ground and we are already getting truck loads of step 1 and step 2 fertilizer come Feb and March. Probably even earlier, maybe right after Christmas it starts coming in..
I went to Lowe’s and bought 10 bags of fertilizer and 10 gallons of disiel and a bag of cotton balls. Now what?
You mean go long on starving?
Counterpoint: human urine works really well too as fertilizer and a lot of broke ass WSB members will be collecting theirs and selling it with how badly people are trading this market.