Ok so I don't understand something. Trump said hes having "productive talks" with Iran and gave them 5 more days we saw huge swing as per last 3 weeks of "talks". Is the market really just responding to his tweets on hopium ralley's with trillion dollar swings or am I missing something?
My buddy works in shipping and he said theres like 150+ tankers just sitting outside Hormuz waiting. If the strait reopens tmrw does that even fix things? Bc the Qatar LNG thing is physically destroyed right, thats not a negotiation its more construction.
Also seeing ppl say US energy independence means we shouldn't care all to much but then seeing gas go from $2.93 to $3.91 in a month doesn't really make sense if we produce all our own oil? I keep hearing the refinery angle too. Like we pump light sweet crude but our refineries need heavy sour imports? Can someone who actually works in this explain how that works bc I thought more US oil = cheaper gas and clearly thats not whats happening
Genuinely trying to learn here, I have some money in energy etfs and want to understand whats actually happening vs what the news says is happening.
Can someone explain to me why gas prices are swinging so much based on tweets?
byu/Big-Fan9696 inoil
Posted by Big-Fan9696
11 Comments
Because the market and basically everyone else is hopelessly clinging to the idea that this is somehow going to be over soon and things will calm down and go back to how they were before the war started, and they are taking any flimsy excuse or market manipulation attempt by Trump and others to do so, even just briefly. There is no real productive talks between the nations going on, they are just sending out a list of demands to each other currently that neither side is going to accept and are full of non-starters. Nothing real is happening, and likely won’t for a good while.
US troops are still being moved into the region. Iran and Israel are still bombing each other, they literally exchanged bombings today and yesterday while these supposed “negotiations” were going on. The strait is still closed, and short of a full-on ground invasion (Troops taking Kharg island likely won’t be enough to make Iran bow down, open the strait or stop the war, it’s actually likely to make things worse and escalate shit more) or Iran just deciding on a whim to give up all the leverage they have for whatever reason (not a good bet to make, in my opinion), it will remain closed. Let alone if they go scorched Earth because because the US and Israel keep pushing and they start bombing oil and gas facilities all over the Middle East as a “Fuck you” maneuver.
We are llikely in the equivalent of January of 2020, and it just hasn’t sunken in for a lot of people yet. Everything is probably going to go tits up this year economically worldwide, and things are likely going to get very, very shitty.
Buckle up.
AI traders trading on vibes, its mental
Why do you think gas prices are swinging based on tweets? Someone isnt spending a billion because they woke up and saw a tweet.
It is speculation around the complexities of supply disruption, demand destruction, probably future status quo events, etc. The tweets are just potential signaling from one side.
Releases from the strategic reserves and states’ reductions on gasoline taxes are pushing the price back down.
Before he tweets or announces something, a bunch of his friends make insane bets. These are collectively over 100s of millions of dollars, what follows is people thinking the crowd is moving and they panic buy/sell.
Example, just today, someone loaded 1.5 Billion with B on oil futures and some 100s of millions on s and p 500. Shorted oil and went long on stocks. 14 minutes later, he comes out and says talks are going well.
Mmmm….. Crime
Rich people are riding the ride before it’s over. It’s The Great American Fire Sale. Buy the rumor, sell the news and there’s a guy you can bribe to start rumors on social media.
2025.04.07
See Richard Quest’s reaction to Trump advisers’ tariff remarks
https://youtu.be/ajepCm-mYUE?t=79
Because the entire market is completely fake.
If you own shares and hold them in a trading account, you actually own nothing. The DTCC owns all shares that aren’t booked with the companies transfer agent. If the brokerage you’re holding in decides to sell your shares there’s nothing you can do. If the brokerage goes bankrupt you get absolutely nothing.
If you can explain why the US let DJT into office, I can explain energy to you.
There’s a great book from the 2000s called Oil on the Brain that details the journey oil takes from ground to the pump. US ‘energy independence’ is a bit of a logical fallacy because oil is a global commodity and not all oil the US extracts is fit for the gasoline US vehicles consume. Also – extraction is costly so if the price per barrel drops below a certain amount – companies don want to expand extraction.
It’s complex. Definitely dig into the research.
Are gas pricing swinging up and down?
Obviously oil prices have been swinging all over the place, but that’s just various forms of market manipulation and irrational behavior.
Gasoline has just been on a steady climb where I live.