The question on Wall Street’s lips this week has been about Iran: When and how will the war end? President Trump issued some positive updates over the past 48 hours, though some analysts have pointed out there’s little verifiable action at present to support those claims.
BlackRock CEO and founder Larry Fink sees the conflict ending in one of two extremes: Global powers accept Iran, and its goods and services (most importantly, its oil) is released onto the world market, pushing prices down. Or, the Iranian regime continues to stand at odds with global adversaries, and oil prices stay significantly elevated not for mere months, but for years.
Wall Street has been determinedly upbeat about the war in Iran resolving in a relatively short window—even the ever-skeptical Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said he is a “little optimistic” about the long-term outcome of the current chaos in the Middle East.
Read more: https://fortune.com/2026/03/25/larry-fink-iran-war-oil-prices-two-extremes-recession-growth/
https://fortune.com/2026/03/25/larry-fink-iran-war-oil-prices-two-extremes-recession-growth/
Posted by fortune
20 Comments
Abundance, growth, and the hormuz strait that was once free to use before this ridiculous war now under the sovereignty of Iran at 2m$ a pop
Totally agree. This either goes really great or really bad. I don’t see a middle ground
So if he’s correct then it’s either the collapse of the US industry or they have another boom. $40 oil is the worst thing if you want energy re-investment, not just by US producers. The real price of oil is and should be north of $80.
Reality will likely unfold somewhere in the middle…probably right in the middle. 😂
Guy who can make money on the upswing or downswing predicts an upswing or a downswing, more at 11.
When are you guys gonna realize that these Wall Street insiders are saying whatever will make them more money?
I look at who is in charge. To expect a good outcome is laughable.
The best military on the planet has zero chance with crap leadership like Trump’s.
Ima take the under on $40/bl.
If we have to lay odds on $40 or $150 I think it’s like 50:1 in favor of $150
Trump already bombed the shit out of Iran. Even if he packs up his toys and goes home, Iran will keep the straight closed if they are smart. Otherwise Trump comes
Back in a few months and bombs then again. They need to punish Trump and make him look bad to the rest of the world for being such a boob.
If he escalates, the outcome is potentially worse because the entire Middle East becomes a war zone and critical infrastructure is destroyed in OPEC countries.
My money is on $150 or higher a barrel for the foreseeable future.
$40 per barrel is below the break even point here in the U.S. and I think even in Saudi Arabia so I don’t think that is going to happen.
Typical smoothed-brain linear thinking from someone not in the oilpatch.
Oil will go to $150, crash the global economy… THEN it will go to $40 ! Both are true, not at the same tiem
$40 oil sounds a lot like hyperbole. Why would an open strait and terms with Iran result in a 30% price reduction from when oil was $60? Supply glut is a much longer time horizon…
Gee I wonder if these MAGA guys will get us the good outcome? LOOOOOL
Isn’t pushing the price of oil up critical to making Venezuelan heavy crude profitable enough to invest in?
Ahh, yes. I also predict stonks will either go up, or down.
Oil should be back to $70 region within the next 2-3 weeks.
I cannot believe how stupid this administration is, I mean, I knew the bar was low but Jfc
No path from here leads to a better situation than before the war.
We have bad case and catastrophic case scenarios.
make it recession and 150$ and a world switching to renewables due to high oil prices… phyrric victory if victory at all for the men behind Trump!
American producers seeing forecasts for $40 oil: “The fuck you are”
Yes all will be well in the middle east somehow soon, Israel and all fanatics will suddenly convert and abide by the American rules so the oil can flow freely…