I feel a ground invasion is almost inevitable at this point, not a full scale invasion of the whole country but maybe starting with taking Kharg island.
*Trump claiming to be in productive talks, which Iran denies (I think he’s just trying to calm the global markets.)
*Military build up with special focus on elite regiments and marines
* US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a congressional briefing that the US may need to physically secure nuclear material inside Iran. “People are going to have to go and get it,” he said, without specifying who. -Al Jazeera
* Iran has been laying traps and moving military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island in preparation for a possible US operation to take control of the island, according to people familiar with US intelligence reporting. -CNN
What do y’all think? I think markets would react quite negatively which is dumb imo as there is quite a high risk of it happening.
US ground invasion of Iran priced in?
byu/Hoazt inwallstreetbets
Posted by Hoazt
34 Comments
Everyone is hyping this weekend, we’ll go into Monday without a deployment, rally the week, and then next weekend is the beginning.
price deez nuts in
Markets cant really price in this level of catastrophe. At a certain point it becomes so drastic and the consequences so spiralling that it’s not really worth selling into unless stuff fully happens.
“Priced in” is a myth rich fuckers tell you to disguise them siphoning wealth away from a stock
Bro, the market has stopped pricing-in reality for at least 10 years at this point.
of course , now a days white house itself pricing in the oil and stock market . Every thing is priced in
buying puts on everything if boots actually hit the ground there. oil’s gonna moon and everything else tanks hard when people realize this isn’t some quick surgical strike. defense contractors already ran up too much to be worth chasing at this point.
Just waiting for someone to say “We’ll have the boys home by Christmas!”
In war talk, that means “holy fuck! we cooked for a decade!”
It’s been priced in since the Korean War.
If it’s been made public, if YouTube videos have been created on it, ya it’s been priced in
Trust in a mix of Inverse Cramer and Pelosi Tracker and all will be well
“Elite Regiments”
No way, surely the market will get exponentially worse
This post was priced in
You are on drugs markets are down 5-7% and you think a full blown ground invasion is priced in ??? Tard !!!
If USA takes over Iran’s oil machinery, then they don’t have to change any assumptions except if USA decides to increase price of oil, maybe long term, costs go up 10%
If USA fumbles, Iran will continue selling to everyone it doesn’t consider its enemy, but costs still go up 10 to 15%
If USA decides to destroy oil infra in GCC, then its game over, we will enter stagflation and its the 70s again.
Chances are its scenario 2 and costs go up 10-15% permanently in long term , resulting in 2-3 years of high single digit inflation globally
yes and no, but yes, but also probably no.
There are not nearly enough troops in the Middle East for a ground invasion at the moment and it will take month to transfer the troops into the area.
When we invaded Iraq, the troop buildup lasted, like, a year. They had to get 100,000 troops over there, positioned, supplied, etc. What makes you think invading Iran would be different? Iraq, geologically, is a fortress. Iraq was a flat plain/desert. Our approach would be different but it would still require a massive invasionary force. Sending in a few helicoptors with special forces isn’t going to overthrow Iran.
Markets are not pricing in a large ground invasion, they might be pricing in limited ground operations or a taking of Kharg island… We don’t see the US making the preparations for a large scale invasion
It’s really not about boots on the ground or no boots on the ground.
It’s about Iran blowing up another huge portion of its neighboring countries’ oil fields & refineries.
How could something that catastrophically stupid be priced in? They constantly seem to massively underestimate the scale of the problem. Iran wasn’t going to fold if you kill a single old dude, the strait isn’t going to get re-opened if you take an island, all you are doing is digging a deeper hole. Cholesterol is the only hope we have left.
It’s not fully priced in. Some of it is priced in, but you can’t fully account for this.
The problem is that Iran is already at a disadvantage, but they don’t want to appear weak, so they won’t simply surrender. We can expect a ground war, which would likely plummet the market if no deal is reached in the next one to two weeks.
Trump wants to end this war as soon as possible, so he wont wait too much for the deal.
It won’t be Kharg Island, that would be too escalatory, and I think Iran has no doubt dispersed the nuclear materials so seizing those is unrealistic. Most likely any troop deployments would be on the Islands in the Strait of Hormuz which are lightly defended. That would give us better ability to control the Strait but I doubt ships would want to go through even with US Navy escort.
3,000 troops is priced in. 50,000 is not.
Calls on you guys getting drafted
No ground invasion of iran, it will be a take over the strait invading the islands around it that have tunnels built in and anti ship missiles.
I think Trump extended his deadline specifically to Friday evening. There will be a major escalation this weekend with the hope that Iran will be forced to open the Strait. If that strategy is successful market will go up significantly next week, if not markets will go down 5% on Monday. I think we are basically at a breaking point. If this thing drags on another week, we are in for a global recession and many countries will face civil unrest due to energy shortages.
The end of war is also priced in
Yes. The market is a machine with one purpose: to shake people out. It will recover before anyone is ready for it.
No, it hasn’t been priced it
Obviously not
Have we not already established alien invasion and beyond is priced in
Nothing about the current failure by the administration is priced in.
Expect the strait to be mined soon and closed for the year, oil hitting $500 and Israel nuking Iran while US Soldiers are fighting there.