I just want to share something for people who are new. A few years ago when I first started buying, the market was already dropping from its highs. At the beginning, I actually stuck to my plan and kept buying slowly. As the price went down, I saw it as a chance to get more BTC at lower prices.
But things changed later. As the price kept falling, I started to feel uneasy. Every drop made me wonder if it would go even lower. At some point I just stopped my DCA and decided to wait and see. I told myself I would come back in when things looked clearer. Looking back now, that was exactly the period I should have kept buying.
I have also seen a lot of similar stories. Some people kept buying from around 40k all the way down to 18k, which was the right direction. But either they did not buy enough, or they got distracted and put some money into altcoins. Some of those went up for a while, but many did not last. If that money had just stayed in BTC, the outcome would likely have been very different.
When the market started to recover, I realized the problem was not the market, it was me. I thought I was managing risk, but I was really just reacting to emotions. It is easy to make a plan, but the hard part is sticking to it when things look the worst.
Now I keep things simple. I do not try to time the market anymore. I just follow a fixed schedule and keep buying. I set up my DCA so I do not have to make decisions in the moment. Since I have been in BTC for a while, I sometimes do a bit of spot trading on BYDFi, but most of my position is still just long term holding.
This market cycle actually feels similar to back then, so I am sticking to my plan and buying every week. In the long run, I still believe adoption will keep growing.
Stopping my DCA during the drop was probably my dumbest move
byu/Extra-Avocado8967 inBitcoin
Posted by Extra-Avocado8967
7 Comments
This is why many (edit: most) people lose money trying to trade or time the market. The times you *should* be buying the most are precisely the times most people are terrified of doing so. I remember the long, difficult bear market of 2015 when we hovered around $200-250 /BTC for what seemed like an eternity. To this day I kick myself because I *reduced* the amount of $ I was investing out of fear, rather than increasing (or at least maintaining).
You’re doing the right thing to DCA through the bear market.
Edit: even worse, I sat out most of the 2018-19 bear market entirely :(. That time it was fear b/c of the forks, primarily the bch fork as back then I wondered if BTC might falter due to the higher txn fees, & was worried some alt(s) might take over dominance. Feels foolish in hindsight, but at that time w/ super high btc txn fees it felt truly doubtful.
Learn the lesson. I remember dreaming if bitcoin dropping from 7k to 2k to buy more. I see it very differently but then again I have studied bitcoin at length and know in which direction is going.
People buy green and sell red typical
Adoption will keep growing. Besides the ETF’s institutional adoption hasn’t even really begun yet. With the passing of the clarity act, every financial institution will officially recognize bitcoin as a legit commodity and they will all want a piece of the pie. Between that and all the consistent buys from the treasury companies, it seems like a supply shock would be inevitable and imminent, barring any major black swan events.
Yes. Live and learn. It’s hard to hold conviction when price is dropping and all the chatter is negative. Bitcoin is dead! You can’t help but question yourself. I’ve been there too. After a couple cycles, and more than a few mistakes, you start to mature and become more resilient. Let the talking heads talk and just keep stacking. When price goes back up, we all feel like geniuses and wish we would have bought more.
That is the point of DCA.
Sticking to BTC instead of getting distracted by alts is a lesson most people learn the hard way.
Everyone in Bitcoin long enough has that story buddy.
Don’t beat yourself up over it.