As Hormuz closures enter a fourth week, Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude via Yanbu at unprecedented levels, with flows exceeding 5 Mbd on some days against an estimated conservative sustainable capacity of 4.5 Mbd. The shift is helping offset disrupted Gulf exports but is exposing bottlenecks at the terminal. More than 30 tankers are now waiting offshore, with delays stretching to five days. The build up signals that while supply is being redirected, system constraints are likely to cap further gains and raise delivered costs into key Asian markets.
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Posted by kpler_com
5 Comments
Saudi pushing **>5 Mbd** through Yanbu when the system is only comfortably rated for **~4.5 Mbd** isn’t just “rerouting success.” It’s a stress test — and the system is already creaking.
You can see the symptoms right on the page:
* **30+ tankers waiting offshore**
* **Delays up to five days**
* **Terminal bottlenecks emerging**
* **Delivered costs rising into Asia**
Wait till houthis enter the chat
But….the Dow…
Lived 2 years in Yanbu for the big SABIC/Yansab build out. They’ve been building and building for 20 years. I think they’re ready for the big time.
The important part, not mentioned is the normal flow is 0.7 – 1.3M bpd. So this additional flow is substantial.