We are at almost max pessimism. It's times like these where if you have cash on the sidelines to start DCAing into some solid names that have crushed on earnings. Companies with zero correlation to the geopolitical climate and sheltered from the presidents mood swings.
A bottom indicator is typically a vix spike, followed by high sell trade volume and capitulation. Take a look at where the vix is now as well as options call/put ratio. I don't have a crystal ball but I would not be surprised if over the weekend we see some very negative news/events followed by a brutal Monday sell off.
Que the president change of tone on Iran and plunge protection team coming in Tuesday/Wednesday for a large intraday reversal marking the bottom.
I'm very rarely accurate on the exact time, but I'm always very close. Curious to hear others thoughts.
Edit: Lots of comments and at work so can't reply to everyone. Agree or disagree appreciate your viewpoints and happy Friday.
We are almost there, blood in the streets
byu/Mattreddit760 instocks
Posted by Mattreddit760
46 Comments
Almost? I don’t see people jumping from buildings bro. We got a long way to drop before we are truly max pessimism. It’s been 5%.
Guy, gas is going to be $8 a gallon this summer. We’re no where close to max pessimism.
When your neighbors BMW that they already couldn’t afford on a 70k salary goes missing one day you’ll know it’s time.
I think your close to right, I think 610-600 will e the bottom of SPY followed by a massive green dildo to crank all the indicators the opposite direction overnight.
US markets are still up about 20 percent from tariff nonsense bottom in last April, if that gives you any sense of scale.
VIX highest since COVID with the sole exception of “liberation day” so a possible sign of maximum fear
I’m thinking max pessimism is when Trump takes Kharg island, then realizes that Iran can just turn off the flow of oil to the island and all that Iranian oil is no longer on the market. Everyone is talking about a ground invasion but somehow no one is putting together the fact that ground invasion means zero Iranian oil.
It will drop alottttttt more.
Hoping everyone panic sells. I doubt this will last until the summer. If it does, there will be a blue wave in November which is the last thing the this administration wants.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump and this administration’s plan was to crash the stock market with the intent of lining their own pockets
I’m not pessimistic
I’m realistic
Trump routinely bankrupts his businesses and that is exactly what he is doing
October 1987 crash would be the equivalent of SP500 at 4500; we’re not even close to blood in the streets.
Bro I’m up on the year…. lol
No blood in the streets yet.
I’m not buying anymore until spy drops 12% ytd.
What positive outcome do you see when we put boots in the ground? What headlines do you expect to see?
You know it’s not max pessimism when people still say to buy the dip.
It’s max pessimism when no one wants to buy and everyone is looking to sell
I sold my puts that expire at the end of April. I did open some new ones though.
I really don’t think we are even close to the bottom.
You can be exactly right but be 15 minutes wrong and be just as broke.
Wait until we drop 20%
Nobody knows anything. This much I know is true.
Bullshit we haven’t even seen the suicide number get posted
I’m serious
Keep your powder dry. It’s early
Almost sure, if TACO.
This is a hangnail. As long as you lot are talking about when to buy, there aren’t even flesh wounds yet.
good call. I’m googling companies that don’t depend on oil.
Idk… seems like a lot of mid-caps are still pretty overvalued… We’re getting close to Fair Value territory for some, but most of the names I’m watching still need like 10% haircut just to come close to a fair valuation…. and that’s ignoring the risk of war escalation.
Reddit seems 50/50, so I can’t inverse Reddit yet.
We are down 10% from ATH and this regard thinks we reached max pessimism. We just stepped into correction territory and not even in bear market yet. These are just rookie numbers right now.
This is the moment I was waiting years for before getting bored and yolo-ing into tech a few months ago.
Go hoe your tomatoes. The worst is yet to come and you can do absolutely nothing about it.
The sky is falling , the sky is falling ….. take a nap child.
When I get money on Tuesday I’ll buy more. Already on the DCA train
Two weeks ago i said he’d announce boots on ground after markets close today. It’s looking more and more like it with it being a sneaky overnight thing. Nothing fixes an economy like a war right? It’s almost on a biweekly schedule the ebb and flow happens.
No
You sweet summer child…
There’s a chance this will continue, with oil prices high people can’t afford things and prices are driving up, resulting in companies missing earnings.
What are they going to announce after the market close today that makes it go up Monday?
This post tells me there isn’t nearly enough blood in the streets. This is nothing.
Every single comment here is bearish. Just like liberation week. Always be buying when it’s maximum uncertainty like this.
youre kidding right? this has to drop 10% more for me to even start blinking at it
We’re nowhere near this being over
Too early imo. Bear cycles like this tend to bottom after 6-9 months, we’re not even 2 months into this one. Wait a few months
VIX ain’t even close to spiked. Slow burn down likely
I dunno if Trump can tweet the stock market higher this time. But maybe. He is the master stock manipulator these days
Hilarious post. Blood in the street? Brother this is a skinned knee……
SP and Nasdaq wiped out 7mo of gains in 3wks. Insane.
Take a look at the VIX longer term chart. We’re definitely getting there but things can get a whole lot worse. I’m still adding to my positions on the way down regardless.
Still, the overall amount of pessimism has me thinking this is a great time to buy and the puts I bought a month and a half ago certainly helped cushion me along the way.