Why Oil Prices Could Explode (And What It Means for You) | Energy Shots
Oil prices are rising—and the real impact hasn’t even hit yet.
With the Strait of Hormuz nearly shut down, global supply is tightening fast. In this breakdown from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, we explain:
• The hidden math pushing oil toward $175/barrel
• Why diesel prices could spike next
• Why the U.S. is protected from gas shocks (for now)
• What global leaders discussed at CERAWeek
This isn’t just an energy story—it’s an economic warning.
Energy Shots tells energy stories through data, personalities, and politics.
Every other Friday, Joseph Majkut and Kevin Book break down the trends of the moment with charts, visuals, and straight talk that cuts through the noise. Join them as they dig into names, numbers, and details, from clean tech to crude markets, political risk to pocketbook issues…and beyond.
This event is made possible by general funding to CSIS and the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program.
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20 Comments
Talking about how maybe putting too much focus on climate risk instead of security risk is a bit ignorant isn't it? We've got loose canon authoritarians running around now. How did they get there? By pushing anti-immigrant rhetoric. And why are there so many immigrants? In large part, by extreme weather collapsing subsistence agriculture. That drives rural people into cities, which drives crime and unrest, which drives refugees. We all seem to be so worried about the direct climate impacts to ourselves that we forget that humans as groups have a LONG history of responding poorly to extreme whether events.
Business plans start to fail at $70 a barrel. Strategy is necessary to get real energy prices for society to half that, for long term stability.
Joseph: The answers to your closing questions lay in the study of the field of exergy. Dr. Tania Sousa is an expert to look to for research, if not interviews. She is with the University of Lisbon. Her work can clearly and with great acuity lay out the most salient factors that can set frameworks for moving forward.
Recall shortages of fuel in the past during wars and same around living expenses..
However this go round well..
Donald Trump and his MAGA followers completely underestimate Iran staying power. Their ability to absorb pain while keeping the straight closed. IMO If the US cannot convincingly “win” and open the straight, the US credibility will take a huge hit, which will impact the ability of the US to remain the world reserve currency. Thus impact the US’s ability to borrow and continue to pay its debt. I would like to see CSIS cover this topic: what would happen if Iran can keep the strait closed for a year or more?
Over indexing on security risk may indirectly address climate risk by incentivizing alternative domestic sources of sustainable energy.
Is buying BNO a good plan…….? Then after the markets start to fall, is buying SDOW a good move,,,,,,!
Oil prices will not rise indefinitely. Simply because substitutes will be used as soon they get cheaper than oil. Electric cars already exist and they aren’t bad, You just get less value for money than with a gasoline car. But this will change when gasoline price rises high enough.
When this monstrosity is dismantled, the first thing Democrats should do, is rename National Airport …Obama National Artport!
It's nice to hear a bipartisan think tank focused on short and long term security strategy giving climate change risk a mention. Clearly, bombs and bullets aren't an effective means to fix a water problem, a food crisis or a mass migration scenario. But the risk too economic and social cohesion needs a realistic and bipartisan assessment beginning with shared values.
This is why NO PRESIDENT CONSIDERED DOING WHAT A DEMENTED TRUMP DID.
As we see in the massive turnouts for No Kings Day 3.0, most Americans want Trump out ASAP. But imagine what the Asians and Europeans are feeling as they pay 2X+ for energy due to a grossly incompetent US president? Their anger is well-justified.
I wonder at what point the FAGA crowd will begin thinking about buying an electric vehicle? Or maybe some wind turbines or solar panels?
A good discussion with one caveat……the conversation regarding risk mitigation when the climate crisis arises. Most experts will tell you such a future conversation is useless. The crisis is underway, not a future possibility, and those who choose to delay appropriate actions are similar to those who argued about better ship design as the Titanic was sinking.
Trump, “I had a very beautiful conversation with myself today and have had very important negotiations with myself that will benefit Israel, America, and even Iran which Iran wants very badly. I also convinced myself to manipulate the energy and stock prices as a way to bring down the oil and gas prices and help my friends and family to make a lot of money, for which I should be credited for. While I was negotiating with myself I'm convinced that I will have this incurursion wrapped up within the next week or so and I will be the great peace president I've convinced myself to be.
Duh
Whatever one thinks of the war, how in hell are we going to get the Straits open?
I haven't heard folks addressing this. Pointing at Trump and laughing at US folly is de rigueur but nobody has any answers to this most pressing question.
What are we going to do?
We should be honest, yes Israel chose this war. The only important question is: would you go back in time and stop North Korea before it became untouchable. Yes or no? Obviously yes.
Yo did you make that tool for the subreddit that was based on tafs? Either way the old tafs sub is banned but there's a new one r/TheAFS
Iran will not be allowed to close the Strait indefinitely. It just won't. Yes there will be short term pain but there is no way Iran can endanger maritime trade forever. It just isn't going to happen folks.