Feels like two different markets right now.
After the last decade where “buy the dip” almost always worked, retail still seems conditioned to keep doing it, while institutions might be doing the opposite – raising cash, rotating to safety, or just waiting this out with oil spikes and rising geopolitical risk.
Markets also aren’t brushing off bad news like before.
So what’s really happening here?
Are institutions quietly de-risking while retail keeps buying, or is this just another dip that gets bought up again?
How’s everyone positioning right now?
Are institutions quietly de-risking while retail is still buying the dip?
byu/Warm_Bobcat6310 instocks
Posted by Warm_Bobcat6310
18 Comments
Just put the fries in the bag bro (aka I’m a bot)
was reading that institutions are already starting to de-risk.
Reports are saying funds are raising cash and selling across the board, even assets that should benefit from war (like gold/defense). Some desks literally called it “selling indiscriminately to raise cash.”
Also seeing flows moving out of equities into cash and energy, and a lot of commentary around “cash is king” again as correlations break.
Even big banks have flagged de-risking in oil-sensitive and emerging markets.
Meanwhile retail is still in “buy the dip” mode from the last decade.
Feels like we might be early to something rather than late this time.
I’m positioning for a recession. Cash, puts, energy.
Yes. Bonds have been selling off for weeks, DXY up, VIX up, credit spreads widening, and high beta stocks losing the most value.
Institutions started selling last year. The top was in months ago. Institutions move much slower than retail because of how much money they are handling.
You mean “holding the bag”
I’m continuing to buy. I will continue to buy if it goes down 50% (frankly I’ll be happy). I have a while until retirement so I might as well reinvest and lower my cost basis.
Yep
Oil up means all input prices higher. Less spending by consumers. Less hiring by companies due to less revenue. Mega cap tech is larger component of sp500 and other ETFs. As ETFs are sold off they get hit hard due to being large percentage of the fund. Energy stocks and cash are the play until there is demand destruction, basically oil is too expensive so shit grinds to a halt. As a long term investor just keep investing you will get deals on the way down and it should eventually recover.
Yes.
I invested a portion in energy so I at least have a hedge when everything else is falling
Yes institutions are locking in profit. One of the biggest bull runs in history. They would be foolish to not take some risk off and lock in some profit
Every investor “influencer” on social media is telling their viewers to ignore the noise and keep buying the dip because of “macro” fundamentals. This strategy works until it doesn’t lol, retail is going to learn the hard way.
What is the difference between “de-risking” and “timing the market?”
Time in the market beats timing the market.
If you buy now you’re guaranteed to not be buying the top.
What part of the market going down in a straight line is quiet exactly.
Only bad ones.
You cannot derisk when every global currency issuing economy has to inflate away insane debt.
Nobody’s buying the dip except for auto 401ks