Back on April 9th, 2025, the US announced a pause on the Liberation day tarrifs. SPY rocketed +11.14% that day.
The situation with Iran is different. Higher oil prices, along with other commodities, will work their way through the supply chain and depress economic activity. Additionally, oil infrastructure has been damaged during the war and will take months to years to become operational again.
However, it is unlikely investors will wait on the sidelines until the oil infrastructure is fully repaired and supply returns to pre-war levels. Everyone will want back into the market before the rally. A legit peace deal likely will cause an immediate rally.
SPY is down about -5% since the start of the war, and was likely depressed prior to the war in anticipation of an impending sell-off.
If a legit peace deal is announced soon, how big do you think the rally would be?
How much would SPY rally if an actual peace deal was announced?
byu/Alicyclobacillus instocks
Posted by Alicyclobacillus
33 Comments
A lot of these moves come down to whether demand is actually broadening or just staying concentrated. No position.
But when peace deal will be announced?
2%
+4% if no run up before
3% at the most
Economy was fucked before the war started. We’re headed into a recession either way. The Iran war just lit the fuse a little sooner.
67
You sure about spy rocketing 11.14% in one day last year? . That’s seems too much for one day
People will have a hard time taking any announcements seriously
“Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says the United States is [plotting a ground attack](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/pentagon-readies-for-weeks-of-us-ground-operations-in-iran-report) despite publicly engaging in diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war.”
It depends on the terms. If Iran got maximum concessions (like strait of Hormuz toll paid in Chinese yuan) then rally would be small at best.
Back to 700 in 2-3 monrhs, not a rally
There will be a relief rally, followed by a reality check crash.
2.5% would be my guess
SPY 700
+5% 15 minutes before it is announced
Right now I’m worried more about AI troubles weighing things down. Most of the recent SPY gains revolved around the MAGS.
~ 3 fiddy
If a legit peace deal is announced soon, how big do you think the rally would be?
**If history is any guide, then,**
* 4/9/2025, Trumps Tariffs +9.5%
* 3/24/2020 (COVID) +9.4%
* 10/28/2008 +10.8%
* 10/13/2008 +11.6%
* 10/21/87 +9.10
The average big one day SP500 rallys is about 10.1%.
The SPY has fallen from $693 on 2/26 to $634 on 3/27, a 1 month drop of 8.5%.
If the news is the Hormuz strait is open for oil tankers and Iraq agrees to US terms, **Then I could see a stock market rally get half of the March month drop back in a single day, maybe between 4% to 6% pop. This would be a 2200 points gain on the DOW and 1000 points gain on the Nasdaq.** But if US troops invading Iran territory to open up the Hormuz strait and suffering US troop losses, this could cause a market downturn.
The US oil situation is not that bad, as the US is a exporter of oil & LNG ( liquified natural gas). Mostly all of the oil going thru the Hormuz strait goes to China, Korea and India and not the US states.
The inflation resulting from the recent oil crisis would need to work its way thru the economy. Inflation concern will most likely prevent the Federal reserve from cutting interest rates to simulate the economy.
Most of the large stock market moves happen before the stock markets opening bell, which means you need to be in position the days before these moves or you completed miss this market move. You can trade in after markets trading, as I do sometimes, but you got to have the money available.
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Listen. We obliterated (Donald’s words) their nuclear capabilities. Then we obliterated them some more and then more after that. We started a war and now Donald has declared it over so we are sending in boots for the ground invasion to end the war and obliterate everything else there. The commander in chief will declare the stratification of Hormuz open when he feels it in his bones. Meanwhile the war is over and it never was a war and we’ll bomb them later just for fun if we feel like it.
If you don’t understand this, then you are not a fit investor.
It’s more about traffic moving through Hormuz than actual peace
It would definitely run IMO. The start of the year is typically bearish and momentum builds towards the end of the year. So it would be right on schedule.
Nice try, Trump.
Massive,
It will one day, but who knows when.
But it will.
We would immediately move to the next earth-shaking crisis.
It’s gonna rip and you don’t wanna miss it
If a ceasefire and peace deal genuinely happens SPY 20% in a day for sure. It will break all records.
It rallied on rumors and obviously B.S. tweets +2%. It will rally +5% on an actual deal with a run up of 2% to 3% 15 to 20 minutes before an official announcement from insiders and the big money boys buying.
Actual. Peace. Deal.
Each of those three words have a whole lot of risk when talking about both parties in this negotiation.
Tree fiddy
Waiting for peace deal annouced to sell here…. I think war is least of our worries now given where things are with the private debt market.
You’ll find out in 5 days
If Trump says it’s over then 0.25%
If Iran says it’s over then 3.8%