As a beginner, I want to understand whether geopolitics really affects BTC

I only got into BTC recently, and I keep seeing news about wars, interest rates, sanctions, and other geopolitical stuff affecting Bitcoin. The more I read, the more confused I get. Sometimes people say BTC is like a safe haven, so when risk goes up it should rise. But other times when markets get messy, BTC drops with everything else. I often scroll updates on coinbase and bydfi and somehow feeling even less sure about what is actually driving the move.

What I really want to understand is whether these kinds of geopolitical events actually change the bigger direction of BTC, or if they mostly just shake up market mood in the short term.

So from a beginner point of view, would you say geopolitics has a long term impact on BTC, or is it mostly short term noise?