If the war ends but the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively restricted, oil doesn’t crash it stays structurally elevated.
Why?
• \~20% of global oil flows through Hormuz → any disruption = supply shock 
• Even partial blockage has already pushed oil above $100 and created volatility 
• Alternative routes can’t fully replace it → millions of barrels/day stay stranded 
So the likely outcome:
• War ends → geopolitical risk premium drops slightly (short-term dip)
• But supply bottleneck remains → prices stay elevated / volatile
• Market shifts from “war fear” to “logistics constraint pricing”
https://i.redd.it/ij9f4lnuedsg1.jpeg
Posted by SpyJigu
40 Comments
What’s more interesting is what happens to the USD and US Treasuries as America becomes inconsequential in the ME and East Asia.
Hormuz would eventually reopen (maybe after the mid terms to screw with Trump, Iran is very much aware of US politics), on Iran’s terms.
Israel wont allow that to happen and will escalate it unilaterally such that the US will be stuck.
Iran will just build a toll booth lol
Iran won’t allow any oil from a country with a US military presence to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz, and the US is going to lose their status massively over this. Oil will remain high and be priced in Yuan.
Iran will charge fees for ship transits. Well, every ship except American ships.. and not because it’ll be free for them
If the US fucks off back home and stop bombing then oil can move again. It’s blocked now because it is the only effective weapon Iran can hurt Trump with.
If they charge a toll then price will have that added to the price but at least it will get exported.
Iran will let SEA and China goes through. For Europe, hope they have good luck.
BYD, MAXN, Oersted and everything else active in renewables to the moon. This is a wake up call that the world has to learn to reduce CO2 emissions – which is interestingly possible.
20% off? Some people ween, as they always do. Drive electric, charge it solar, thats it.
It would be the end of the petro dollar.
Energy infrastructure has been destroyed, even if they opened the strait tomorrow, you still have a loss of production for the foreseeable future.
Iran, should call it the trump tax toll… reminding every country who to thank!
If war ends for good it will be opened soon anyway regardless of what Trump says, but in more beneficial to Iran manner. Which is regardless net positive globally than yet another war.
Transportation companies rather take whatever hit and shift it on end users rather than get out of business. Countries keep buying from there but eventually start to diversify in case of another crisis. So it will be shock anyway, but recoverable and it won’t be ludicrous level of shitshtrom which is on horizon now.
It would leave Iran as essentially the all powerful gatekeeper to a large portion of the oil the world needs. They would extract a toll from any oil that goes through and possibly even limit or restrict certain ships that might be headed to the United States or to any other countries that Iran doesn’t want to get oil.
Ultimately Trump is in the find out stage of his fucking around, and the net result is he has made Iran more powerful if he stops now.
But what is the other option? I am sure the Iranians would bomb the shit out of the gulf infrastructure. Another international coalition has much better chances to reopen the strait
Oil goes up either way.
The stock market will stabilize to a new norm and rally as company earnings benefit from inflation, as they often have, until consumers are forced to cut back on luxuries since essentials like gas and food can’t be reduced. Eventually, job losses will lead to the lower rates this administration wanted, along with more spending to support farmers and replenish the resources already depleted in this so-called conflict/operation. This will ultimately lead to a recession where those who are better off gain more wealth, as it’s transferred from those less able to withstand the effects of this self-induced crisis.
Iran will charge $2 mln per ship and will decide who can pass through
USA cant open Hormuz. Only Iran can. So I guess the GCC+Europe+Asia will agree to anything Iran wants.
Isreal will still attack though so war will be far from over and straight will still b ckosed
The United States of America started a war with a second world country and lost. Wars don’t end because you stop bombing… he’d have to agree to the terms of surrender, like guarantees of no US bases in the Middle East and compensation for the 600+ schools we blew up, amongst other demands.
But it’s really not worth entertaining as this is obviously a ploy to pump stocks on the last day of the quarter.
Is that you Donald?
how does Trump end the war?
So create a crisis in the Middle East so we can sell US and Venezuelan oil was the plan it seems like .
Could be the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. And in turn, the end of the US as a hegemonic powet. Trump could go down in history as the one who ended US global dominance prematurely.
Replaced a 86 year old autocrat with, checks notes, his son
Great success!
Countries make deal with iran directly and US blasts their ship
One of the biggest military own goals of recent times
If I wanted to know what OpenAI thinks I would have asked it.
Trump cannot end the war at this point. Not without an invasion and total occupation. And that would take years.
Only Iran can end the war now. And this is a war they have long planned for. So this is likely just the beginning.
It stays up and Iran profits off of taxing selective ships.
And this absolute dumbshit of a market is taking this is good news.
It isn’t up to Trump to end the war.
Why is everyone posting directly from AI with this shitty format?
The strait was open before the military action, or my guess is if you stop fighting, the strait will reopen?
Oil will flow, but Iran will take its cut. Thats the best case scenario. Worst case, trump makes good on his threats of destroying iranian energy infrastructure and then it wont really matter if the straight is open or closed, because the entire gulf will be ablaze and barely produce anything.
People will pay the toll and ships will pass through
The price stays sky-high until functioning adults clean up Trump’s mess.
And Iran is sure as hell going try to develop nukes, now.
“We make a lot of money”
Wait a week and see what happens.
this. algos ripping on headlines, but as euphoria fades markets will realize that structural factors impacting equities, bonds, etc are pretty unchanged.
and that’s assuming this isn’t another head fake (with continued buildup, chances are high).
Prices stay well above $5/G