Pandora's box has been opened; they're really confident that they can control the strait.
What do you think will be the action or long-term solution of the Gulf countries regarding this?
what if Iran permanently control the Strait of Hormuz?
byu/Green_Devil_999 inoil
Posted by Green_Devil_999
16 Comments
It will take 50 guys and a handful of drones to disrupt global trade. It is terrifying.
They won’t control shit. The strait is just a hub for oil, it doesn’t actually come from there.
You get the strait then what happens?
Any soldiers that land on that island will be sitting ducks also.
We will see countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others look for other ways to get their Hydrocarbon products to market.
In the mean-time they will cooperate and pay or whatever the agreement is for the Strait.
I’ll be honest though I don’t see this happening… Trump is bluffing.
The U.S. is not going to allow Iran to control the Strait. The U.S. is not going to allow a country that kind of power of what is massively associated with the Petrodollar framework.
I really don’t think people realize how big of a deal the Petrodollar is to the U.S. empire as it stands right now.
It’s up there with the USD being the currency for reserve holdings and international financial transactions which gives it power of sanctions and so forth.
If Trump does destroy that framework then oh my goodness. We are in for interesting interesting times.
Which honestly I have no idea about anymore. There is so much insanity with Trump and his administration that I never ever thought I would see regardless of Republican or Democratic leadership.
And not in the good way….
If Iran blocks all Arab tankers, or demands too high of tolls, then they will find that they aren’t the only country that can block/bomb the strait.
If they allow the vast majority of tankers through, at a $2 million toll, they may get away with it and become rich.
they will control it permanetly. No military can open it, only iran. Good luck hunting drones launching from the mountains off coast. Or anti ship missiles
iran won’t totally control the strait. they just wanted US[west] to be out of their region and let them solve their conflicts as neighbors. (and pray that they don’t destroy each other because of various things).
Egypt charges toll for Suez, Panama charges toll for the canal. Iran wants their sovereignty and a chance to be left to develop like all other countries without being subjagated to western/us hegemony. The world will be a better place without US foreign intervention.
Iran has always controlled the Strait of Hormuz. It just took this war for Iran to exercise that control.
In fact the ability to control Hormuz was the chief deterrent from the US and Israel attacking Iran for the last several decades.
It took two uniquely stupid and evil people leading the US and Israel right now to stumble into this catastrophe.
Every time there is a US election, we might experience a new international event like the WTI 200. That is more frequent than the World Cup and the Olympics! Shall we call this the oil-ym-pic?
pandora’s box is the middle east gets sick of this and does not distinguish iranian civilians anymore, this won’t last forever
doubt iran keeps a stranglehold on it long-term, too much global money at stake for everyone to just shrug and accept tolls (especially saudi/uae with their sovereign funds invested everywhere).
I’m convinced the USA can’t do it because we’ve already seen they can’t reliably stop shahed drones. So it will be VERY easy for Iran to just bomb shipping in Hormuz with shaheds that are very hard to shoot down at sea.
Everything trump says is a lie. Oil is going to $200/barrel within months.
GCC nations have a combined military of ~400K and lots of toys. I wonder why they do this, is it like having 12 lambos in their underground garage that they never drive? I suspect they will pay the aya-toll-ah because they are cowards.
The price of oil goes up 1$ a barrel. This translates to inflation of the cost of everything by between 2% and 4%. Meanwhile Iran earns billions in oil tariffs. The pertoyuan becomes more valuable. The US dollar weakens. The us economy weakens substantially. And then in 8 years Iran sets off a dirty nuke in NYC
that’s why Trump should just bomb the oil export facilities at Kharg, Jask and the other small ports and the LPG export facilities. Also bomb the gas export pipelines to Turkey and Iraq.
Shut off the regime’s revenue. No American soldiers lives’ put at risk. Bring home all of our assets and personnel.
Let Israel “mow the grass” (bomb those facilities after every repair). Or let the Saudis and Emirati jets do it and get some revenge.
The regime will get closer to collapse every day. Can’t pay its soldiers or proxies. In the meantime, it can’t pay for missile parts or centrifuges. Every day, inch toward solving every problem presented by Iran.
Saying that Iran thinks they can confidently control the strait is a misnomer. Their goal is simply to make commercial tankers afraid of getting hit by a drone. But if they keep hitting other countries tankers there’s nothing stopping other countries from targeting their tankers.