So yeah I messed up. Chinese suppliers told me they do 2500 units/month. I believed it, sent my biggest order yet 1800 units, paid 50% upfront $28k.
Now it’s week 6 and suddenly they’re like actually we can only do 600/month and apparently they’ve been telling different numbers to different clients.
My customer’s getting pissed and talking legal stuff and I’m stuck here with money gone and no real timeline.
Honestly I just trusted what they said and didn’t really verify anything.
Is there even a way to check what a supplier can actually handle before wiring money or is it all just guesswork?
Supplier lied about production capacity and now I'm fucked
byu/UnoMaconheiro inEntrepreneur
Posted by UnoMaconheiro
5 Comments
Honestly this happens a lot with chinese suppliers lol. they’ll say numbers like everything is running perfect 24/7 and yeah no, not really how it goes most of the time. What matters more is what they’re actually putting out month to month while juggling other clients. Not the best case version they pitch, the normal messy reality. I mean I’d just ask what their current schedule looks like and who else they’re working with. Sometimes they get kinda vague there which already tells you enough.
If you feel like digging a bit you can check shipment history on stuff like Tendata or Panjiva. Ngl it’s kinda eye opening you see what’s really moving vs what they said. Had something similar where a supplier talked big and then the actual numbers were way lower when you look over a few months. So yeah not rare. For now I’d probably push them a bit on real timelines and quietly keep another option in the background. Things get weird sometimes and it’s nice not being stuck.
that’s rough, but yeah capacity claims are one of the easiest things for suppliers to inflate.
what helped me avoid this was asking for proof tied to output, like recent production logs, shipment records, even short videos of active lines with timestamps. also splitting first orders smaller and ramping after they actually deliver on time.
in one case I pushed for a “trial batch + timeline” and compared promised vs actual, the gap was like 40% which told me everything early.
not perfect, but anything that forces them to show real throughput instead of just saying numbers helps a lot
Should’ve went American. And if that wasn’t an option it goes to show how fucked this country is.
That’s rough been there. Always hurts more when timelines depend on it. Going forward, splitting orders between multiple suppliers and doing a small test run first can save you from this kind of risk.
Find a domestic manufacturer for the same product and pay to fulfill your customer orders now. Yes, it costs more per unit. That’s the price of keeping the customer and avoiding the lawsuit, which will cost you more than the margin difference.
Meanwhile, the 600/month from China still comes in as future inventory you can sell later. You’re not out $28k, you’re sitting on delayed stock.