$FLY – priced like a dodgy rocket company…their software tracked every Iranian missile fired in combat

tl/dr – posted DD here on $FLY two months ago, some laughed, some didn't get it, a few got it, some will cry in future – such is life. Meanwhile I increased my position substantially since. Thesis has strengthened on every single data point, so here's the update.

Now loaded to nearly a full tittie

I'll get ahead of the "RKLB is the only space company fanboys" – Firefly and Rocket Lab are fundamentally different businesses, something the market is finally waking up to

• RKLB = a hardware manufacturer. Builds rockets, solar panels, reaction wheels, satellite buses. Physical products with 30-40% gross margins that scale linearly with cost
• FLY = becoming a space defence technology platform. The jewel in the crown being SciTec subsidiary running FORGE – the processing system for every (yes that is a verifiable fact) US missile warning satellite in operation. Battle-proven during the Iran conflict, processing 1,000+ live missile threats for the Space Force. $600M programme at software margins. Classified switching costs that make the position essentially permanent. 40 years of proprietary data…good luck competing

Launch is the only business overlap between FLY and RKLB. Everything else is non-competing (again – launch is not the business, launch is the enabler):

• Missile defence software (FORGE, $372M+ and expanding) – RKLB has nothing
• Proven lunar lander (only successful commercial Moon landing) – RKLB has nothing
• Golden Dome positioning ($185B programme, onboarded to $151B SHIELD IDIQ) – RKLB has nothing
• Orbital imaging constellation (Ocula, deploying late 2026) – RKLB has nothing
• RPO space superiority capability (Elytra, DoD funded) – RKLB has nothing
• Counter-UAS machine learning – RKLB has nothing
• Autonomous edge processing on spacecraft – RKLB has nothing

Are you chanting with me yet?

Last two months since my post:

• flight 7 executed fucking flawlessly including second-stage relight (this de-risks Alpha massively) this was the pivotal moment this company turned a corner
• Eclipse is now highly likely to beat Neutron to medium lift imo
• Q4 earnings beat on revenue and EPS
• FORGE expanded $109M in a single quarter
• won classified eight-figure space control software contract
• Collier Trophy awarded – same lineage as Wright Brothers and Apollo 11
• completed VICTUS DIEM responsive launch exercise for Space Force
• SciTec hiring 50+ positions – 10% workforce expansion because they have more opportunities than capacity to bid on
• NASA pivoting to $20B South Pole Moon base – Firefly is the only proven commercial lander and already contracted to go there

Top tier CEO at the helm = Jason Kim:

Air Force Academy, space superiority officer, worked at Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Intelligence & Space, was CEO of Millennium Space Systems. He acquired SciTec using overvalued post-IPO equity at 5x revenue while FLY traded at 39x. Again – he's not building a rocket company – he's building the Palantir/Anduril of space imo

See his recent interviews – he knows how to work the market and get them to understand the narrative, and is doing the lords work working said market

Numbers:

• $435M revenue guided for 2026, 80% already booked
• $1.4B government-backed backlog
• $893M cash, no meaningful debt
• 170% YoY revenue growth
• Zero analyst sell ratings across 9 covering banks
• Zero insider sales since IPO – only open market purchases
• 87% of Q4 revenue from spacecraft and defence software, not launch
• stacked with catalysts through to year end and beyond

FLY has broader TAM, faster growth, deeper defence moats, higher-margin software revenue, and the only proven lunar landing capability. The most nuts part of all = the market is giving the software multiple to the hardware company, and the hardware multiple to the software company.

And here we are at $4.55bn versus RKLB at $36.57bn…let that sink in

Position: 5,250 shares @ $21.90. Target $100+.