Trump says exit in two weeks, but Iran says no deal. A third carrier is en route – pick your narrative

Brent dropped below $100 this morning for the first time in weeks. By end of session it was back at $103. A 5% round trip in one day. The market has no idea what to price in right now and it shows.

Trump told reporters the US may be out of Iran in two to three weeks. Hinted at a possible agreement. Gave a national address at 9pm ET. Markets rallied on the headlines. Futures up 1%. VIX down. Everyone exhaled.

Then you read what Iran actually said.

Their Foreign Minister told Al Jazeera that messages had been received from the US envoy but no formal negotiations were underway. Tehran also laid out its own terms, including keeping sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. That's a non-starter.

And while all of this is happening, a third US aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East. You don't send a third carrier to wind down a conflict.

Oil is still 40% above where it was before the first strike landed in late February. Gasoline hit $4 a gallon this week for the first time since 2022. The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in history. None of that changes on a speech.

Even if something real is happening diplomatically, the path back to normal oil supply is months long. The Strait needs to be secured. Tanker companies need confidence. Damaged infrastructure needs to be assessed. UBS said it best: flows and actions matter more than words.

The market is treating tonight like a turning point. Maybe it is. But Trump has said the war was almost over four separate times in the last five weeks and oil is still at $103.

Curious what others think. Is this finally the real de-escalation or are we going to be back here next week with oil at $110 again? And for anyone holding energy positions? I'm in the look out with my stock screener – are you trimming into this or riding it out?