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    SpaceX filed for the biggest IPO in history during a correction. Either brilliant timing or terrible timing. No in between.

    This would be the largest IPO in history by a significant margin. SpaceX is looking to raise $50 billion or more. For context, Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion at its 2019 listing. SpaceX is talking about doing twice that in a market that has been effectively frozen for mega deals for years.

    I've been tracking the space sector and aerospace names on my stocks screener as I want to want to dig into the publicly traded names while waiting for this one… so, the timing is what makes this interesting.

    The IPO market has been in a drought for a while. Rising rates, inflation fears, geopolitical chaos. Big listings kept getting pushed. The pipeline got bigger but nothing moved. 2026 was supposed to be the recovery year and so far it hasn't been.

    SpaceX is either going to change that or confirm that the market still isn't ready.

    The bull case is straightforward. Cult CEO following. High growth industry. Real revenue from Starlink. Government contracts from NASA and the DoD. No real competitor at scale. The retail enthusiasm alone would probably make this oversubscribed.

    The bear case is more nuanced. One analyst put it well: SpaceX might be so singular, with its celebrity CEO and unique positioning, that a successful listing actually hurts other space stocks rather than lifting them. All the capital and attention flows into one name and everything else gets starved of oxygen.

    There's also the market timing problem. This filing comes while the S&P 500 is in correction territory, oil is still 40% above pre-war levels, and inflation is running well above the Fed's target. That's not the environment where institutional allocators are lining up to absorb a $50 billion raise.

    But as one banker put it: if any business can list in this market, it's probably SpaceX.

    Curious what the community thinks. Does a $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO actually get done in 2026 given where markets are right now? And do you think it opens the door for other mega IPOs or does it just vacuum up all available capital and leave everything else waiting another year?

    SpaceX filed for the biggest IPO in history during a correction. Either brilliant timing or terrible timing. No in between.
    byu/Smooth-Lawyer-8479 instocks



    Posted by Smooth-Lawyer-8479

    10 Comments

    2. magic-grits on

      And yesterdays pump just gave wallstreet the liquidity exit it needs to jump on this IPO. The ATM will be open again today. People buying the dip now are just gifting SpaceX shares to hedge funds.

    3. cbusoh66 on

      100X P/S and competition on launch and cashcow Starlink is catching up. May trade up to $2 trillion but it will end up at less than half and even lower before end of year.

      The xAI move was to distract with data centers in space bullshit because the rest of the business has plateaued, just look up non-Starlink launch numbers. Starlink growth has slowed and smaller nimbler players are leapfrogging ahead.

    6. unluckid21 on

      Please remember. Musk just wants this so he can become the first trillionaire. Don’t give him the satisfaction

    7. Solidplum101 on

      SpaceX will be overvalued much like its sister company tesla. Im sure as shit most people wont care. Elon knows this, he will push it and people wont give a damn what the market cap is or p/e.

    9. LeadingAd6025 on

      Wait, what? Rivian is 18 billion marker cap today at $15 share price.

      Wasn’t Rivian IPOed around $120 per share making it more than $100 billion IPO market cap value??

    10. RamBamBooey on

      A warning. You seem biased and it could be clouding your logic.

      The bear case:
      1)SpaceX is now SpaceX/xAI/Twitter:

      -Twitter is toxic and will hurt the brand

      -xAI is a hyperscaler and will suck away all SpaceX profits away from development

      2) Elon stated his goal for SpaceX is to put data centers in space. This is clearly another “full self driving” type illusion because it’s not cheaper to put data centers in space.

      3) Tesla – Elon is intertwining the two companies and Tesla is an albatross

      4) Elon’s cult status is weakened. I can’t support Tesla ($1.16T) + SpaceX ($1.75T). That’s almost $3T. The money just isn’t there.

      Edit: I’m definitely biased against Elon. Not trying to hide it. But I think the bull case is not nuanced. Smart money sees it.

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