Hello,
I gather you are somehwat experts here. So simple questions: after hormus is open again (lets say 2 weeks after), where do you see Brent and LNG? Considering the backlog and damage to refineries and infrastructure.
Thank you!
Posted by Fast_Half4523
17 Comments
No. One. Knows. Right. Now.
Not good.
Pour one out for all the bag holders on this sub.
lol it’s not fully opening again as previously was in your lifetime
75
Lmao no one is an expert here. They’ve been predicting paper oil to $150 by end of week every week for 5 weeks now. Do the opposite of this sub.
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/s/TUf2hShpwF
There are hundreds of these predictions
Probably around $80 brent for a few years if I had to guess.
This is my bullish opinion on oil.
Let’s say trump declares himself Victor and just leaves.
Iran is still bombed to ashes and still under control of the strait of Hormuz.
They will force other nations (mainly Europe and golf states) to pay the war reparations in form of Tolls on oil tankers.
Where the price of Brent will be exactly idk, but I think there is not too much downside.
72.25
Well your first mistake is considering people here are experts lmao.
tbh Brent normalizes quick. Fujairah came back online in days. Markets priced worst-case, got inconvenience. LNG stays sticky on Asian demand scrambling, not infrastructure damage. Recovery beat expectations.
The problem with “2 weeks after reopening” is that it assumes the Strait closure is like a normal supply disruption. The timing, conditions, and even definition of “open” are entirely controlled by the regime. And no, the idea of a few thousand troops “storming” and taking control is not remotely rational.
We are all passengers on the ‘dear leader’ crazy train.
Instant 20%+ drops then slowly bafk to 50s
What about USO?
There have been analysts who have written on this and spoken to the media, and it is widely agreed that infrastructure is damaged and will need years to come back online to meet the demand that used to be met by the G.C.C. The price shocks and fuel rationing are already starting in Europe and parts of Asia. Every time an oil shock happens it typically takes up to six months to fully feel it, and we got an increase in gas prices of over a dollar in literal handful of weeks already.
There is no indication that the Strait will open, but the negative effects are absolutely guaranteed at this point. The wealthy are shorting the oil futures on the hope of de-escalation, but nothing will stop the prices from soaring when the supply squeeze hits. It will be a really nasty rubber-band effect when it does.
You don’t have to be an expert to know that the hopium of the markets is going to run out. They can’t overcome conservation of mass and energy to make oil magically appear out of thin air and circulate the globe.
2 weeks? We are in for a lot longer than 2 weeks. It can take months to get back to the same capacity we were at prior to this and thats without the destruction of infrastructure.
The market prices in optimism, future predicting, I’d say a 20% drop in price once this gets announced.