From an economics perspective, how should we think about the interaction between geopolitical uncertainty, oil supply risk, and movements in Treasury yields?

Equity markets opened lower today after a U.S.–Iran update signaled potential uncertainty over the next few weeks. Oil prices rose due to the lack of clarity around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Treasury yields continued their recent upward trend. Labor indicators (initial jobless claims and Challenger job cuts) remained stable ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls release.

More specifically:

• What mechanisms explain why geopolitical tensions often push oil prices higher even before supply is actually disrupted?
• How does this kind of uncertainty typically feed into bond markets and yield movements?
• When labor data remains stable during geopolitical shocks, how do economists interpret the combined signals for near‑term economic activity?
• Are there historical examples where similar geopolitical events meaningfully shifted macroeconomic trajectories?