Trying to understand something I'm seeing in real time this week.

    The Iran conflict has pushed oil above $108. Simultaneously, the dollar initially strengthened on safe-haven flows before dropping yesterday when ceasefire rumors surfaced.

    What's the cleanest economic explanation for why a geopolitical oil shock can strengthen the dollar in the short run, even though higher oil is inflationary and should theoretically be negative for the US economy?

    Is it purely safe-haven demand overwhelming the fundamentals, or is there a relative growth expectations story here — i.e. the US is less exposed to an oil shock than Europe or Asia, making the dollar relatively more attractive even as oil hurts everyone?

    Looking for the theoretical framework, not trading advice.

    Why does a geopolitical oil shock sometimes strengthen the dollar even when higher oil is inflationary?
    byu/One_Cancel7890 inAskEconomics



    Posted by One_Cancel7890

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