Celsius energy drinks is valued as if it's crude oil that isn’t trapped behind the straight of Hormuz. Its PE is currently sitting at 136, while its most direct competitor Monster energy is in the upper 30’s. Water is heavy and it is expensive to move. Energy drinks are the definition of a high-mass, low-value-density product. With crude oil in the triple digits for the foreseeable future, diesel costs will continue to go parabolic and profit margins for Celsius are going to get crushed just from the distribution costs. CELH’s balance sheets for 2025 showed an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.25, representing a terminal contraction of -45.7% from the $0.46 EPS recorded in 2024, so growth has been slowing even before the stagflationary implosion to be caused by the Iran war.
I don’t think that passing that extra cost onto the consumer will work all too well either, who’s going to spend 6+ dollars on sparkling water when they’re worried about layoffs and gas is at 6 dollars? To make matters even worse, just a couple weeks ago Costco began selling an identical product of 24 pack selling for 0.70 per can, while Celsius 24-pack sells for 1.58. Who is going to pay >2x for an identical drink in this economy?
And to top it all off, Celsius recently took out a $700 million loan to buy Alani Nu. In a world with high inflation and high interest rates, paying the interest on that massive debt is going to bleed their cash flow dry exactly when they can least afford it. This thing is currently priced like a hyper-growth miracle. Once the market wakes up and realizes it is just a regular beverage company carrying heavy debt and slowing sales, I think this thing will aggressively correct to match normal drink companies. Just to reach a normal, fair valuation, the stock price has to drop by another 70% to 75%.
Positions: 20 strike Dec 18th 2026 puts
(I think it’s worth it to pay a little extra to get 2 full quarters for the evisceration of their revenue/costs to be fully realized)
Caffeine crash: Celsius (CELH)
byu/13jfncjai31 inwallstreetbets
Posted by 13jfncjai31
29 Comments
Stocks only go up bro, didn’t you get the memo this week
Now I see why most people on this sub lose money. Thanks for the inverse tip. Calls and buying shares tomorrow
Their Forward PE is x20 my guy. In addition. Anywhere you look every other person is drinking an alani or celsius. Lastly, the stock is trading near all time low. Buy calls
Holy out of touch, buying calls and shares rn. You truly belong here
The sub sentiment is that this guy is flat-out wrong. So inverse WSB says this guy is actually right. Buying puts next week
Every girl at my work drinks those Avanis
CELH has been in the dumpster for 6 months now and it’s only going to get worse with the reasons you said, but a lot of people on this sub YOLO’d into it so you’re going to read copium.
Energy drinks are poison. I’m in for shorting them.
damn you really went deep on the fundamentals there mate, actually impressive dd for this sub lol
been eyeing celsius for a while and your right about the distribution nightmare coming up – i work in tech but my mate runs logistics for a beverage distributor and he’s been saying fuel costs are absolutely destroying margins on anything heavy like drinks. plus the costco angle is brutal, kirkland brand basically kills premium pricing overnight when they decide to compete
the debt timing is what gets me though, taking on 700 mil right before rates went mental is just chef’s kiss terrible timing. reminds me of those companies that did massive buybacks right before covid hit. celsius management probably thought they were being aggressive and smart but now they’re gonna be paying interest on that loan while their core business gets squeezed from every angle
might grab some puts myself but probably shorter dated, this market can stay irrational way longer than my patience lasts. good luck with the 2026 expiry though, gives you plenty of time for reality to set in
Ahahah- you say oil prices affect their distribution like there is a fleet of trucks only delivering Celsius & Alani Nu. Hate to break it to you, but they are just additional packages on shipments already delivering products to stores. Raws costs aren’t terribly affected, either, as ingredients are generally already in bulk to bottling/canning facilities.
This kind of take is what happens when people outside the industry has no clue what is going on inside it.
Counter-question- what happens if CELH is dissolved after April 28th when Pepsi buys them and brings it in-house? Still up in the air if it’s a buyout or strategic investment percentage in exchange for exclusive distribution rights. Guess we’ll find out later this month.
17% more shelf space this year. Trades on velocity not eps.
get a job and you will realize that normal people drink so much fucking alani
Celsius makes me sweat like a whore in church.
Celsius is gonna be bought by Pepsi one month from now, Mark my words.
136 PE. Guh.
60-90% IV on options though. Swings might be priced in to some extent, probably requires a spread or something.
Maybe I’ll enter this trade with something exotic like a bearish collar idk.
The other day some bitch is claiming her husband got some posters or stuff to print as a work about Celsius being acquired on this sub. Not sure how legit it is though. Good speed regard!
Love this. Buying in tomorrow.
With Jake Paul involved I’ll buy puts just on principle. Hopefully the stock takes a good hook to the jaw
At first I thought this was a shitpost but goddang, it does make sense (about the pe).
I love energy drinks and celcius is some of the worst tasting. Monster and Red Bull are much better. I do like alani nu though.
You tube guru guy Jeremy L pushes this stuff. I remain skeptical.
Out of all the shit to short, this is what you choose? Your DD is terrible….maybe this post will save ya some $. Or not. Idc.
One thing about the beverage business is there is always something new or better that is basically the same shit. I think the competition is real from knockoffs selling the same garbage at a lower price as consumers tighten up. Good call.
My company recently started stocking CELH (we have free drinks). Jokes on you, I’m going to drink enough of these to make a new quarterly sales record.
P/E is 22 you burnt ass chode
[deleted]
I thought they were supposed to be getting acquired by Pepsi according to that one guy last week LOL
Your lack of fundamental is truly impressive and shows how retarded this sub is.
Using GAAP EPS during a year with two major acquisitions as your “growth is dying” proof is like measuring someone’s savings rate the year they bought a house. At $33.70 and $1.34 adjusted trailing EPS, the trailing P/E is ~25x. Consensus FY2026 EPS is $1.60, with a range of $1.32 to $1.87. That puts forward P/E at ~21x. For reference, Monster trades at ~35x forward. Coke at ~22x. CELH at 21x forward is trading cheaper than Coke despite dramatically faster growth. OPs retardanium “priced like a hyper-growth miracle” is the exact opposite of the reality now. FY2025 revenue hit $2,515.3M, up 85.5% YoY. Alani Nu posted Q4 net sales of $370M with pro forma growth of 136%. The CELSIUS brand itself grew 7.5% to $1,457.7M, and international revenue grew 24%. They now have two billion-dollar brands and approximately 20% of the U.S. energy drink market, an 8 percentage point increase year-over-year. The poster calls this “just a regular beverage company carrying heavy debt and slowing sales.” In reality it’s a company that nearly doubled revenue, owns the #2 and #3 fastest-growing energy brands, and is PepsiCo’s designated energy category captain in the US. On the debt, First, the number: the original term loan was $900M, not $700M. But by year-end, total debt was approximately $670M with $399M in cash , meaning net debt is ~$271M. Operating cash flow was $359M and adjusted EBITDA was $619.6M. Net leverage is roughly 0.4x EBITDA. Annual interest expense is maybe $40-45M against $359M in operating cash flow interest coverage of ~8x.
“Bleed their cash flow dry” is nonsense. This is a conservatively levered balance sheet by any standard. They’re already paying it down aggressively and refinanced at 75bps lower.
The diesel thesis is actually braindead :
OP thinks Celsius is self-distributing heavy cans in its own trucks and getting crushed by diesel costs. In reality, Celsius operates through PepsiCo’s distribution network, including integrating Alani Nu into PepsiCo’s DSD system starting December 2025. Celsius doesn’t bear direct fuel costs for last-mile delivery PepsiCo does, and PepsiCo’s distribution cost is amortized across an enormous portfolio of products. The gross margin argument from diesel is a misunderstanding of the entire business model.
On the 20 dollar puts
At $20/share, CELH would have a market cap of roughly $5B on $2.5B+ in revenue with 51% gross margins and two billion-dollar brands in the fastest-growing beverage category. That’s ~2x revenue for a company growing 20%+ with the PepsiCo distribution moat. At $1.60 forward EPS, a $20 stock is 12.5x earnings — cheaper than Kraft Heinz, a company with zero growth. There is no plausible scenario in OPs analysis that gets you there. Congrats OP ur retarded and just burned money
TLDR: OP is retarded and has 0 understanding of fundamentals
Since WSB seems to think that it’s a bad play, it’s going to print. Congrats OP.
Puts for sure, holy shit that PE, all I read was the first 2 sentences. Also short monster, long term puts for both 2 years out