Will SpaceX be the next Enron?

    This is probably a little click-bait-y, but I'm curious what the real analysis shows. Reddit being Reddit seems to hate on anything Elon, so it's all doom and gloom. Reddit says the retail investors are going to be the bag holders for the institutions to cash out, especially with the index rule changes.

    My take on the $2T valuation is that investors are making the bet that SpaceX can 10x its profit in the next 5 years. If successful, then I don't think the current valuation is as absurd as the Reddit seems to believe. It's certainly a risk and a bull case for the stock, but I wouldn't necessarily bet against it. If I recall correctly, NVDA and TSLA both scaled even faster at their peaks. I also personally believe that SpaceX has such a big moat compared to other companies that there really isn't any meaningful competition.

    I also think the low initial float isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are so many employees that want to offload the stock, that I think the float will increase very quickly. These are employees that have been holding the stock for 5, 10, 15+ years and finally have the opportunity to pull their cash out. Sure, there have been liquidity events over the years, but they have also been oversubscribed, so the employees haven't been able to diversify as much as they want.

    Full disclosure, I worked there for over 10 years, so I have quite a bit of insight into the industry and how the company works. I'm not a fanboy, but I'm also not a hater, so I'm sure I'll get downvoted in the reddit sphere.

    Will SpaceX be the next Enron?
    byu/dontdoxxmeee instocks



    Posted by dontdoxxmeee

    4 Comments

    1. WinningWatchlist on

      Probably not, but a ton of people are going to be saddled with SpaceX stock in an effort to keep it from selling off too much.

      I have no expertise in the space exploration side of it but the efforts made to make everyone hold shares in it through retirement accounts and ETFs should be ringing massive alarms for everyone.

    2. ElectricalGene6146 on

      Yep. Also highly liable for all sorts of weird porn slander too. Go on X and look at all of the disgusting posts of people publicly asking Grok to undress celebrities. You are buying not only a highly overvalued, but a toxic asset with this IPO.

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