everyone is talking about the iran war and trump’s tariffs, but i wanted to see which companies are actually panicking in their official sec filings. i spent my entire weekend digging through the "risk factors" section of the 2 most recent 10-Ks for 98 s&p 500 companies.
i looked for 8 specific themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
here is the data. some of this makes zero sense on paper, but the 10-Ks don't lie.
the "macro risk" top 10 (highest exposure)
| ticker | company | exposure score | key risk mentions |
|---|---|---|---|
| MS | morgan stanley | 95.6 | 221 total (massive geopolitical/war) |
| C | citigroup | 91.2 | 269 total (highest volume in the scan) |
| BAC | bank of america | 80.4 | 102 mentions |
| GS | goldman sachs | 67.2 | heavy institutional/trading risk |
| JPM | jpmorgan | 62.1 | systemic macro exposure |
| CVX | chevron | 58.0 | 188 oil/energy mentions (obviously) |
| BLK | blackrock | 52.1 | asset management/global exposure |
| EOG | eog resources | 50.2 | 142 oil mentions |
| CDNS | cadence | 45.6 | 21 tariff mentions (semis getting hit) |
| REGN | regeneron | 43.7 | 36 tariff mentions (surprising for pharma) |
the "safe haven" list (the ones who don't care)
if you're looking for where to hide, these companies basically didn't even mention the war or tariffs in their risk factors:
- PGR (progressive): only 7 mentions total.
- UNH (unitedhealth): 6 mentions.
- NFLX (netflix): 6 mentions.
- COST (costco): 8 mentions.
3 things that surprised me:
- banks are the real "war" stocks: i expected oil companies to be #1, but morgan stanley and citi are screaming about geopolitical risk way louder. they are terrified of credit defaults and trade finance collapsing while the market is at all-time highs.
- the semiconductor "sanction" trap: nvda (ranked #13) and cdns have massive exposure to sanctions and tariffs. nvda has 50 mentions of "sanctions" alone. the "ai moat" is built on a very fragile geopolitical foundation. if the strait stays closed, the supply chain for chips is toast.
- pharma is not immune: regeneron (regn) has 36 tariff mentions. i didn't realize how much their supply chain for raw materials is tied to the current trade war.
the "so what?"
the market is pricing in a "soft landing" or a "short war," but the banks are writing 200+ page warnings about systemic collapse. either the banks are being overly cautious for legal reasons, or they are seeing a credit crunch that the retail market is completely ignoring.
i'm personally looking at costco and progressive as the only real "sleep at night" stocks right now.
what am i missing? are the banks just covering their asses with legal boilerplate, or is the risk in the financial sector a legitimate warning for the entire s&p 500?
not financial advice. i'm just a guy who spent too much time on sec edgar this weekend.
i spent my weekend reading 98 s&p 500 10-Ks for tariff and war risks. the results are.. weird. banks are way more exposed than oil companies
byu/Upset-Commercial-661 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Upset-Commercial-661
28 Comments
That’s a lot of words
“Entire weekend” it’s Saturday morning
This is too smart for this sub
Thanks for doing this! This is the kind of unique research I like reading into. Whether or not it’s actionable is another thing, but very intriguing to
watch!
The banks have been roshambo’ed for a minute. Way before the war.
This may just be banks having way more sophistication with compliance and risk management.
Did you just control F geopolitical in these 10-Ks? Or what goes into the “score”?
Better buy VNOM
I’m gonna spend my entire weekend playing red or black, touching myself and drinking cheap whisky, i will buy whatever on Monday before WWIII
You lose a lot of credibility from me when you say PGR UNH NFLX COST are safe haven stocks
That section of the 10K is just to CYA for most companies. Risk section tends to contain risks even if those risks are remote just to mitigate litigation. You will find that these risks align by industry so kind of a waste of time to dig through individual 10Ks for this.
They said bitcoin is risk off asset, you know that?
Claude read these 10-ks make no mistakes
USD is going to collapse, pull out now
I been on Costco
I read = I copy and pasted them into Claude.
Wow what research this guy searched for mentions of certain words. Didn’t even bother with trying to correlate things further. Outstanding
I like how you made this all lower case to make it seem like an LLM didn’t write it.
igga, up or down?
Forgot the Wallstreet bailout already? Have you learned nothing?
I’d invest in Costco out of principle. Not to exposed internationally, solid local growth, 1.50usd hot dog and coke. Wendy’s is to expensive now
bro is not michael burry ✌️😂
bro found the secret no one else could figure out.
Bro asked a chatbot
Lmao
Thanks Chat!
‘ i took the whole weekend reading’ aka i asked Claude hey write me some bs for reddit
Good can I buy a townhouse on sale for $900K
https://preview.redd.it/cr6n7uey59tg1.png?width=1472&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ee9080c2863cf19e590cdc87418a7f404cf847a
AI Detected mf talking about spending the whole weekend on Sat lmaoo