It's a popular idea among finance boomers that software companies are only going down because AI is kicking their asses so much. "You can build your own saas product in house now, AI is so great" blah blah blah. In reality tech in general is going down, AI included.
Case in point Medallia which is in the news for its failing private credit situation with Blackstone. https://peinsights.substack.com/p/blackstone-drives-medallia-negotiations On the surface it looks like the "SaaSpocalypse" right? But whoops "The company's software-as-a-service (SAAS) platform utilizes AI technology to analyze structured and unstructured data from [blah blah blah]". https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/55329-40#overview
You heard that right, the company is heavily into AI, so any efficiency gains that AI can supposedly produce should be transferred to the company. If the AI hype were true, they should just be one guy and his dog now controlling a team of agents maintaining all this software for dirt cheap right? Right!? But it's all fucking bullshit.
Still don't believe me? Look at the darling of AI, Nvidia. They are the ones making all the profits in this bubble but are still down from highs over 200 to now trading in the mid 170s. Nvidia even dropped 4% on a record breaking earnings report in February https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/26/why-did-nvidia-stock-crash-after-blowout-earnings/. Microsoft did the same despite the magic of Copilot crammed into Windows and them spending billions on AI crap, they dropped 12% on earnings, and down over 30% from peak.
Oracle is down 50% from peak despite going all in on data centers and joining the Stargate project bullshit. This month they are cutting 30,000 people all at once. Shouldn't they be rolling in cash because of the AI boom? Instead they are another bad loan on Blue Owl Capital's books. "But I thought private credit risk was all 'software' not AI?". Hah, wrong.
So how in the world is this supposed to be a SaaS only problem and how is AI the winner when all the AI players are taking a massive shit too? Make that make sense.
Positions: Puts on QQQ, XLK, XLF. Long duration.
SaaSpocalypse story is a boomer fantasy
byu/YeahBuddy5000 inwallstreetbets
Posted by YeahBuddy5000
10 Comments
Boomer apocalypse sounds scary until you realize it’s just SaaS companies discovering what profit means for the first time.
boomers really thought ai was gonna replace whole dev teams but turns out you still need actual humans to build and maintain this stuff who knew
Both can be true.. we built an in house finance planning tool that works way better for us than the SAAS product we were implementing.
Those tools require you to make your data work in their product where with vibe coding its reverse.
Well I asked AI and it said to go with CALLs
it’s crazy that the AI is making the TLDR for your post
Nothing crashes anymore they don’t let it
Replacing SAAS is like trying to replacing a drug cartel, they will open their cash flow and start blowing things
Turns out growth at all costs wasn’t a business model
Hey at least we can agree that there is some BS. I also came to the conclusion a few months ago. It’s very unlikely that we have BOTH:
1. AI/Mag8 being fake hype and an AI bubble. AI ain’t going to change shit.
2. AI/Mag8 is actually all the hype and more. AI is actually disrupting SaaS and other industries.
Can’t both be true. Or at least not true to the extent that the market is pricing.
Congrats on reaching 1st order of effect thinking. That makes you smarter than the average WSB regard. Sadly 1st order isn’t worth much when there is 2nd/3rd/4th/5th/Nth.
>Positions: Puts on QQQ, XLK, XLF. Long duration.
I’ll go with MSFT/MAG8/VOO + reserve of gold/STnotes. If it dips buy more. I’m also bearish on the market/economy, but being a 🌈🐻 is hard and often a loser’s game. I’d rather be defensive and keep buying dips.
Going to buy more DUOL