Oil Price Shock To Cause A Recession This Year? | Lance Roberts
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Will the oil price shock that has resulted from the war in Iran trigger a recession this year?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as where the markets are likely headed next, what’s happening with credit spreads & private credit, as well as Lance’s firm’s latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.
#oilprice #creditspreads #iranwar
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
All the details on Thoughtful Money’s relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.
Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227
Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.
Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
41 Comments
BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference
Updated – S, 4/3/26.
U.S. Iran War Escalation –
– It is happening, there won't be a Trump deal by April 6th; Iran is willing to fight a U.S. Iran ground war.
By Tuesday morning, the U.S. Iran War escalates to another level.
– As mentioned, numerous times; Energy prices remain high for a (Very long time, months; or much longer) due to numerous reasons.
– Yes, the U.S. (and Global) economic-financial system will be negatively impacted from this; Q2 2026; forward.
– Once there is a commitment to a War between nations, it is very hard to stop.
Ignoring (anything) does not mean that it just goes away.
These are the facts.
Ref –
Bureau if Labor Statistics
St Louis Fed
Atlsnta Fed GDPNow
usdebtclock
Lance is data driven and the rest of us our emotional he says with a straight face
Updated – S, 4/3/26.
– In addition to my (just previous) comment.
– The Conference Board – LEI – Leading Economic Index is leading towards a Major Recession > 2027.
– Take a look at the chart (past recessions are shaded in gray).
U.S. Treasury stops buying its' own bonds by mid-April.
Ref –
Bureau of Labor Statistics
St Louis Fed
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
usdebtclock
Let’s face it: the question is Trump to cause a recession this year?
My question to Lance is if Taiwan runs out of NatGas in 2 weeks to run chip factories how does that not affect our chip companies in the U.S.?
Democracy is dying because of the idea there is nothing you can do. Write to your congressman, go out and demonstrate, write to the media, make your opinion heard.
Facts and data? Why emotionally driven mental illness is the programmed thinking that people want. With us or against us pick one. Respect your fellow human hah. Fear rules the day and this will pass.
Great weekly recap 👍 Wish our politicians on either side had 1/10 of wisdom that you two bring to the table. Appreciate all the great advice. Thank you.
Trying again. It is not all about oil prices. It is first of all a shipping disruption happening. During Covid, 1 ship blocked suez, it took 9 month to normalize and all shipping rates came down from triple levels. Now, 300 ship are locked inside Hormuz, it will take years. And installation has already been destroyed… recession is now 100%.
They took up earnings before 2008 crisis also.. that is the banks trying to hold their business alive. Luring in traders and investors. This is old tricks from that side. There is no reason to take up anything. All other countries banks do exact opesite.
US import 290 million barrels from Middle East every year, 9 million per day. US is 100% reliant on Middle East. And again… shipping disruption happening!!! That will spike prices as they did during 2022. It was little bit oil, most of it where disruption in trade. US is also reliant on the rest of the world prosper, if resession happen in Europe, google, Microsoft +++ will decline income big. They are highly dependent on oil and gas prices to run their enormous data centers. You got that wrong
If you remove the datacenter capex from US GDP, the GDP growth is exact the same as in Europe.
Us GDP ex datacenter: 0,8-1-1
Europe GDP: 0,8-1,1
Very few benefit from that datacenter GDP in us.
So I don’t get this point of Europe is so much worst set than Europe… that is just incorrect
US is running way higher deficits than Europe. So most of that datacenter GDP is in fact debt.
If you remove datacenter, that benefit what? 4 to 6 companies. Ok
Most the tax cuts are on higher income consumers. In fact most of it is.
Sosial sustainability in Europe far outpace the US, so the future real economic is in fact much more positive in Europe. Not everything is beeing rich and high GDP. I think us system is really at the breaching point on so much. We do not have this in Europe even if your president try to propaganda how bad Europe is. He say this because Europe is to strong for him, Europe stand up for values
Maybe this will push us to invent fusion flying cars that will fly faster than light. Then we will need zero oil! What a great plan
Well. Nowadays US is not looked at as a reliant trade partner but a rouge nation. I do t see that many countries will buy more from us because of this. US have very clear showed it is not to be trusted in trade. So why would anyone change that? They rather buy from Russia…
US have also a bigger stake in Middle East than anyone. Btw. It is not the first time they have a crisis down there. They have tried to build different trade before, troughs Saudi, trough Pakistan… everytime US has stopped this political. Look at history
Btw. That chart over history oil chock. You have to factor in LPG in that. lPG/ Gad is low as big factor that was not there in any of those other years. Samme with fertilizer and things like helium. Itnis way bigger now, even if oil demand is lower because of that
The Arab Oil Embargo was the "match."
The Spike: Prices quadrupled from roughly $3.00 to $12.00 a barrel in just six months.
The Duration: The embargo itself only lasted about 5 months (October '73 to March '74), but the prices never went back to $3.00.
The Floor: For the next four years, prices drifted upward, holding around $13.50 throughout 1978. The "normal" of the 60s was gone forever.
The Decline: Prices began a slow, painful slide starting in 1982 as non-OPEC production (North Sea and Alaska) finally came online.
The Collapse: It wasn't until 1986—thirteen years after the first shock—that oil prices truly "crashed" back to $10.00, finally ending the era of stagflation.
Sorry man. But this guy just isn’t very sharp. Love the conversations, but no.
Love your analysis, Lance and Adam – thanks 👍👍👍👍👍👍
We are currently shutting down massive oil production in the Middle East that takes months to turn back on and you have morons on predicting $30 oil in the next few months? Thank God these guys exist.
Lance can't say anything for definite always on the fence pretending he is predicting something, but isn't, but is, but but but. Yawn!!
Cause a recession? When have we not been in a recession? It feels to me like we've been in one for over a decade. For over a decade now, my hubby and I have been doing things to cut waste and spending but it is never ending. And now they are cutting Social Security while eliminating Medicare at a time when those people need it the most. This Administration just loves seeing people suffer, well, they love seeing the average Joe suffer while they protect the billionaires who buy their elections. Americans need to retake their country from the global elites that feel entitled to everything.
Thank you both. Great show as always. Happy Easter!
Gundlach disagrees with Lance. He said private credit is about the same size as subprime mortgages in 2008. He predicted the subprime crisis and used similar language around private credit
Uh oh Adam didn't refer his brother to Lance?
Thank you both again for your thoughtful level-headed advice.
No Lance is not a Freak out person haha I think you are both Brilliant but Lance is so easy to understand. Great episode.
Advisor has made all the difference with our family. Thanks for the inspiration.
I am late but I am here.
Lance "I need my long term bonds to rise up" Roberts
Lance is the type of guy that will tell everybody everything fine while the house is burning down.
Adam, the video gif was pretty good. Would have been even more appropriate if the guy would have been getting hit by arrows from all directions…
Be careful with thinking 'the US is a net oil exporter means no effect for the US'. The oil companies in the US are not taxed anywhere as highly as many other countries. They can be expected to gouge more heavily. Plus US oil isn't exported to global shortage areas so the only people paying for the price hikes will be locals. There is just a delay in the effect when compared to 100% importing countries in the east, and that delay is the thing being counted on.
Trump has a bigly ticking clock and he knows it.
To paraphrase another 'quick war against angry farmers brandishing WW1 rifles on a hill' that didn't go as smoothly as expected when looking at the relative military strength spreadsheets, 'Americans have the watches, but the Iranians have the time'.
If I have it correct, he is down 5%, has 20% in cash and is buying tech stocks and puts.
Wow I just heard 2 old guys ranting for a chunk of the podcast & saying old men shouldn't waste their time ranting as life is short, humm, huuu, huuu, how ironic. lol
Should rename the show to rantfull money. Only when Lance is on of course. I disagree, we will still be talking about Iran in 6 months during the recession.. Love the show !
The script this week is that oil will be up temporarily and everything will go back to normal in the next few months. Go back to sleep. I'm seeing blown up aircraft that hasn't been seen since 1972 and blown up refineries and energy infrastructure. I would think that is relevant to something bigger going on. You can't trade when you are being lied to or are not getting the full truth. Go listen to the Pento podcast. He seems to gets it.
We never had a recession during Covid and the markets were down 25%
Adam, can you invite a guest to your program who can realistically talk about the Gulf states contribution to USA stocks and economy, and world economy in general. I hear a lot in terms of their petrodollars (aside from monetary side helping USA) reinvested in US stocks. This is very relevant as Trump goes on with his plan on attacking Iran infrastructure, no doubt Iran will destroy Gulf states, and hence such a guest could bring a lot to your audience. Thanks!
Lance is right from a purely financial/investment perspective. My problem with the both sides-ism is the lack of moral ownership for what your country is doing. You may not be able to do anything about it personally, but if you just stick your head in the sand, you’re enabling things that will rot your soul.
And sure, if we’re debating policy in the abstract sense, it helps to be data driven and not emotional, but when one sides ‘discussion’ is enabling genocide or saying certain groups of people in the US should not have even basic human rights, it’s time to get angry. Morality is more important than all of this, imo.
Conservatives have dealt with judgement and condemnation for almost 2 decades or more. Now we deal with aggressive confrontation and violence. After the attempts on Trump and the murder of Charlie Kirk, you can forget civil discourse with ANY democrat. To even remotely expect that is part of the problem. The left has no accountability for their actions unless we force it upon them. It is coming. Stop trying to be civil. It only makes things worse. Wake up.
Another excellent review of the markets. It would be interesting to hear the cost various money managers charge and how it impacts returns? What's a fair charge to manage a portfolio?
Adam we are not a democracy we are a republic. Democracy is mob rule. Frankly it seems we R going in that direction.
The world on which Trump has spent his second presidency dumping on is in no hurry to help.
In fact I'm pretty sure they will do as little and complain as much as possible to wound him badly at the midterms.
Why is you Fib bottom at 5148? That's not the swing low.