**TL:DR**
-
way more oil has been flowing through the strait since “day one” than the news and the AIS tracking system would have us believe. imo, the could cut the impending supply shock” substantially but wtf do i know?
-
analysts #3 has a big ‘ol set of balls.
**shits behind a paywall so you can only see about a third of the full article, credit to @aakashgupta on twitter for the following summary (that is clearly written my by our lord and savior chatgpt).**
Citrini sent a dude with $15,000 cash, recording sunglasses, and a pack of Cuban cigars to the Strait of Hormuz. What he found flips everything Wall Street thinks about the strait on its head.
Every hedge fund, every macro desk, every retired general on CNBC is watching the same AIS shipping data to price Hormuz risk. The analyst signed a pledge at an Omani checkpoint promising not to gather information, then smuggled in a gimbal, a microphone kit, and a 150x zoom Leica camera past the border officer who inspected his bag.
What he discovered on the ground: the AIS data everyone is trading on is missing roughly half of what's actually transiting the strait on any given day. Ships are going dark, spoofing destinations, broadcasting "CHINESE CREW OWNER" through transponder fields to avoid getting hit. Iran's ghost fleet is running 29+ laden tankers inside the Gulf with transponders off, moving an estimated $3B in crude to Malaysia since the war started.
The entire market is pricing a "closed" strait off satellite imagery and transponder data that has a 50% blind spot. Every oil model, every supply forecast, every macro call built on AIS throughput numbers is working from a dataset that systematically overstates the disruption.
When the signals deliberately go dark, the people staring at dashboards are the last to know what's happening. Citrini figured that out by putting a guy on a speedboat 18 miles from the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead.
The gap between "what AIS says" and "what's actually transiting" is the most mispriced variable in energy right now.
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini-field
Posted by triwyn
27 Comments
Only 15,000 to go there is criminal, who the duck would take that
igga, up or down?
Are you saying they’re overestimating the damage done to infrastructure that’s permanently offline
Translation: Take at least 50% of the gains made on USO calls and betting markets and give it to the humble tech call holders with unrealised losses.
if anyone could get the full article, help ya boy out? i was gonna pay up before i posted this then i found out their sub stack pricing is clearly decided by the ayatollah. fucking 130 dollars a month… smh.
crazy
So does that mean we’re still “bombing them to the stone age” Tuesday?
So you’re saying it can get worse?
Brother – most of the trackers online have the non-AIS ships factored in lol. This is a nothingburger
I see an article without a single proof of their claims. Mhm. Big Trust me bro energy.
Thing is I think market already knew this and factored it in. Its why so many analysts have been questioning why the Indexs are not down significantly more considering the impact shutting down the strait would have on global prices and the overall economy.
Bro you think Citrini is the only one to have eyes in the strait?
You’re telling me that they can spoof AIS transponders? This is the first I’m hearing of this…
So we’re doing oil espionage now
We knew that, it was even caught by the analyst watching satellite data
Even if what your saying is true companies will just hold the oil and sell at shock prices never letting enough in to lower prices. The shock price isn’t even close to being here yet
> So, CitriniResearch sent our incredibly capable field analyst – dubbed Analyst #3 in order to avoid emotional attachment – on assignment to the Strait of Hormuz.
Lmao
I bet citriniresearch is short oil
He’s just selling risk to the regards.
Yeah and what if Trump bombs Kharg island?
This is like when Steve Carell braved a Florida champagne room to get ground truth on adjustable rate mortgages. There’s a bubble
why do we now have promotions for ‘citrini’ here?
Thanks for sharing
We could have the data from planet Labs they didn’t go dark
JFC people. Look at the fucking number of ships trapped in the Gulf, and have been since day one of this mess.
If you have been paying attention some “shadow fleet” ships have been going through, but no where even close to the 130 or so ships that would transit the strait every day before this started.
Did the analyst have hookers and blow with him? If not, it’s not legit
Bro yes all this might be happening but what’s also happening is that freight carriers are charging 100-150% more even for shipping household goods across the Strait. It’s insane what’s going on the ground outside the strait for ships that go through the strait.