I created an entire dashboard that runs a probabilistic monte-carlo simulation on my backtested trading strategy, and estimates the exact distribution of drawdowns.
Even though the headline maxDD on the backtest was 3% at 30% capital at risk, the simulations show that a drawdown of 5-10% is actually quite likely to happen, based on the volatility of the strategy.
Most traders are worried about the strategy headline CAGR and how to maximize their returns per trade.
Winning traders focus on the opposite – not blowing up the account long enough to compound.
The best strategies aren't focused on juicy 50 delta premiums or 1200% trades.
The best strategies out there – the ones that actual hedge funds run – are only focused on one thing:
Managing risk well.
If you can assess risk accurately and reduce your exposure when it matters most …
You will do very well trading options.
Otherwise, you're trading on borrowed time.
Losing traders obsess over returns – winning traders obsess over risk.
byu/Impressive-Bottle229 inoptions
Posted by Impressive-Bottle229