This week feels like the market is running on three separate personalities and none of them talk to each other.
Oil says the world is ending. Dollar says rates are staying annoying. SPY keeps pretending everything is manageable until one headline hits and suddenly every clean setup turns into a hostage situation. I’m sitting there looking at GLD, broad indexes, and the usual macro trades thinking I finally understand the story, then 20 minutes later the story changes and now I look like I built a thesis on a gas station receipt.
That’s the part I hate most right now, not even being wrong, but being right in a way that still loses money. You can read the backdrop correctly, size one trade a little too confidently, and the next headline still turns your beautiful setup into modern art. At this point I trust position sizing more than conviction, because conviction has been getting slapped around all week.
Maybe this is just one of those periods where the only real edge is admitting the market is not confused, I am. Anyone else getting cooked by moves that look obvious just long enough to bait you in, or am I the only idiot getting emotionally rugged by oil, dollar, and every sentence out of a politician’s mouth?
This market has me bullish for 11 minutes at a time and somehow that’s enough to ruin my whole day
byu/Zestyclose_Mail_4569 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Zestyclose_Mail_4569
12 Comments
We’re all just trying to put the fries in the bag bro.
To me its a very simple thing to calculate. Assume you’re not in a position to judge the geopolitical situation yourself. You look out at the market and see that currently both oil prices and XLE are going up. But the general market is also going up. That obviously can’t be the case. If energy costs go up, the market should go down and vice versa. So one of these groups is wrong. Oil prices are driven by oil traders predominantly. The market is driven by everyone. Who knows more? Who’s more likely to be right? The guys who know one very specialized thing? Or the general group who trade on generalized information?
I personally am long oil and short the market. We’ll see how it plays out.
Yep i was up quite a bit thirty minutes into market open and now everything is dropping hard. Market doesn’t know which direction it wants to go
Tomorrow is TACO Tuesday
The entire market is being manipulated, and the same people who crashed the market they gonna pump it later
I don’t have any cash left, so i’m just drinking, touching myself and crying everyday
This post has more risk management than 90% of this sub. Ban.
I think the obvious truth is this current geopolitical world situation is extremely bearish. However, theyre going to up-down-up-down extremely in reverse, how you would expect, opposite, and mixed bag. You wont be able to predict the moves every time, but you can try.
Realistically, very bearish. But stocks go up and down, in a downward fashion even.
Goodluck
Something something irrational longer something something solvent
That funny because this market has ruined people’s whole lives in less than 11 minutes 😀
“every clean setup turns into a hostage situation” is fucking hilarious way to describe this time period
Not gonna read all that. And is there a real reason for this market to go up? Sure opening the strait will make it go up, but there is no reason for it to sustain that upward momentum. AI is slowing job growth and will only continue.
What is happening that is good? I’d say just about nothing.
Markets will be irrational longer than you can stay solvent. If you believe in something, go with it. But don’t gamble everything, you need to be able to DCA and don’t do 0DTE. Worst case play futures so you always have time or long dated options (6months). Remember, if you gamble everything you’ll become insolvent before your thesis actually works.