I was idle, so I ran some code to compare the company's just released 2026 10-K with the previous year's to determine what changes were made to the risk factors.
They recently charged $4.5 billion for "excess H20 inventory" because, with the tightening of export restrictions, demand in China essentially vanished. they have an abundance of chips that they are unable to sell.
Additionally, there is new wording that imposes a 25% duty on any H200 chips that are returned to the US for inspection. This is a significant additional expense for their supply chain.
On the top of that, China's antitrust authorities discovered that they had shipped "degraded" goods in violation of the conditions of the Mellanox agreement. In their second-largest market, this puts their entire networking moat under scrutiny.
Pelosi has been reducing her holdings, and even Congress is currently net selling (~$2 million outflows). A $4.5 billion write-off raises serious concerns, even though the market is still pricing this as a perfect growth machine. Are we just ignoring this, or has anyone priced it in yet?
Nobody is discussing NVDA's recent $4.5 billion inventory hit in their new 10-k
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