Before a macro event, I trust positioning more than the first candle

One thing I’ve learned the hard way is that the first move after a macro event is often less informative than people think.

Not because the event doesn’t matter. Because the reaction gets distorted by how the market was leaning into it.

What I want to know before the event:

• where positioning looks crowded
• whether implied vol already assumes a large move
• which asset is most likely to become the expression vehicle
• whether rates / FX / equities are all set up for the same directional surprise

If I don’t have that context, I’m basically guessing whether the first move is information, flow, or a squeeze.

That’s why I like thinking in scenarios instead of predictions:

If outcome comes in hotter than expected:
Which asset actually has room to extend?

If outcome is cooler than expected:
Where is the most painful unwind?

If outcome is mixed:
Which first move is most likely to reverse?

I’m curious how people here structure pre-event options prep. What matters most to you: IV, dealer positioning, rates reaction, or something else?