Over the past month or so, every time a negative news came out such as Houthis firing missiles, the markets fell, while it rose on positive news. However, at the start of April, it bounced on "old news" of diplomacy and negotiations.
If that is not strange enough for you, say it was still considered a positive development despite being a rehash of previous information, events and sentiments have become worse since then.
Except the market has barely reacted (dipped slightly but largely holding). Price movements have been attributed to news or "surprises". Except when it no longer explains anything. Something is very off.
Chart of USO and SPX
Has something that is not obvious to the public changed?
byu/kktvMIN inStockMarket
Posted by kktvMIN
3 Comments
Near record margins, retail traders piling in while hedge funds exiting. Also low volume on rebounds. Let’s see what happens
The current administration is going to do whats best for the top 1% in the stock market.
I thimk most people are over the “im going to do this!” Then that day comes and nothing happens. Or it all just falls through like DOGE and like Tarriffs.
The middle class will always foot the bill and I dont think market makers fear of Trump doing anything drastic other than regular bombing.
This happens in most bear markets. It’s about large funds repositioning, fear vs FOMO, and general uncertainty. Volatility will always disconnect asset prices from economic forces. The market hasn’t had time to negotiate prices within all the new dynamics in the market. These things used to take years. Now, it takes months or even weeks with digital trading.
My money is still net bearish. I am expecting another leg down before May, probably within the next couple of weeks.