Another European Energy Emergency on the Horizon? #energy
Europe solved its last energy crisis by finding a different supplier. There is no different supplier this time. 🌐
⚡ THE EXPOSURE — Europe replaced Russian pipeline gas with Middle Eastern LNG. Then watched the Middle East go to war. Qatar declared force majeure on all LNG exports after Iranian drone strikes. Dutch TTF gas prices have nearly doubled in three weeks. The replacement supply is gone.
🏭 THE MATH — European gas storage sits at just 30% capacity heading into summer refill season. At current consumption rates the buffer runs out before winter. Germany’s industrial base — the engine of the entire European economy — runs on energy it can no longer reliably source or afford.
⚠️ THE CONSEQUENCE — The ECB has already revised eurozone growth down to 0.9% for 2026. In its most severe scenario it warned inflation could peak above 6%. Industrial output is contracting. Energy rationing is moving from theoretical to probable.
Europe is not watching an energy crisis unfold.
It is already inside one.
#Europe #Energy #Macro #WTFinance #Geopolitics
1 Comment
I say this is fearmongering. While the European reserves are lower than usual, they are still at 28 percent. And, as usual, storage is rising since the beginning of April. Injections are picking up. The low point was on March 31st with 314 TWh. Today we are at 326 TWh. (highest usually in summer arount 1000TWh; lowest in the last decade: 285 on March 19th 2022) (Source: GIE-AGSI)