The Middle East war has depleted a key part of the United States’ missile defense system in the region. To rebuild, the U.S. needs to go through China.
In just over a month of war, Iran has targeted several U.S. radar units spread across the region, cutting-edge defensive weapons that are used to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones. Military experts believe many have been damaged, if not destroyed. A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.
China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access. Increased U.S. demand for the metal to rebuild its interceptors — a process that will take years — only strengthens Beijing’s hand in the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“Broadly does it make us more vulnerable? Yes, I think so,” said Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor focused on critical minerals. “I don’t think there’s any doubt there.”
Already, prices for gallium have increased by 32 percent in the past month, after months of lower prices following an Oct. 30 agreement between the U.S. and China. The negotiations were sparked in part by China’s near total control over the processing of critical minerals, including gallium, leverage the country used to cut off supply and force the U.S. to the negotiating table.
If the demand for critical minerals increases as the U.S. attempts to restock its weapons cache, it would only strengthen China’s hand.
“The minute you look like a demander and there’s things you want, then this relationship is at that point where the other side, then, is smelling leverage, right?” said Wendy Cutler, a former USTR negotiator. “And so [Beijing] can up their demands.”
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Here’s a plus side. The US needs to adapts its armed forces to the drone war paradigm anyway.
It’s the perfect time to sell or donate older or obsolete systems to friendly nations that want them, and to repurpose that funding toward adaptation.
Advanced munitions are still doing well, but I bet you there are a number of armored ground systems that need to be adapted to drone warfare or completely reenvisioned.
Maybe I’m wrong, but tanks for example, don’t appear to have nearly as much utility as they used to. Expensive, easy to spot, and possible to incapacitate with drones, it seems likely we won’t be needing as many of these systems as we used to. Or maybe a platform can be developed that specializes in drone support and electronic countermeasures.
Also, close air support may be a role that infantry can fulfill on their own now, to some extent, with drone technology. Perhaps we can scale back on some of the more expensive CAS systems for jobs that can be accomplished with drones.
Maybe small hunter-killer drones can be developed whose function is to intercept FPV drones and keep US troops safe from them. I could imagine every squad having these hk drones to buy them some reaction time, if for nothing else than to take cover and call in more support.
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From the article:
The Middle East war has depleted a key part of the United States’ missile defense system in the region. To rebuild, the U.S. needs to go through China.
In just over a month of war, Iran has targeted several U.S. radar units spread across the region, cutting-edge defensive weapons that are used to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones. Military experts believe many have been damaged, if not destroyed. A key component of those interceptors is gallium, a critical mineral that is also used in other high-tech products like semiconductors.
China has a near total monopoly over the processing of gallium. And it has already proven willing to limit access. Increased U.S. demand for the metal to rebuild its interceptors — a process that will take years — only strengthens Beijing’s hand in the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“Broadly does it make us more vulnerable? Yes, I think so,” said Mikhail Zeldovich, an investor focused on critical minerals. “I don’t think there’s any doubt there.”
Already, prices for gallium have increased by 32 percent in the past month, after months of lower prices following an Oct. 30 agreement between the U.S. and China. The negotiations were sparked in part by China’s near total control over the processing of critical minerals, including gallium, leverage the country used to cut off supply and force the U.S. to the negotiating table.
If the demand for critical minerals increases as the U.S. attempts to restock its weapons cache, it would only strengthen China’s hand.
“The minute you look like a demander and there’s things you want, then this relationship is at that point where the other side, then, is smelling leverage, right?” said Wendy Cutler, a former USTR negotiator. “And so [Beijing] can up their demands.”
Here’s a plus side. The US needs to adapts its armed forces to the drone war paradigm anyway.
It’s the perfect time to sell or donate older or obsolete systems to friendly nations that want them, and to repurpose that funding toward adaptation.
Advanced munitions are still doing well, but I bet you there are a number of armored ground systems that need to be adapted to drone warfare or completely reenvisioned.
Maybe I’m wrong, but tanks for example, don’t appear to have nearly as much utility as they used to. Expensive, easy to spot, and possible to incapacitate with drones, it seems likely we won’t be needing as many of these systems as we used to. Or maybe a platform can be developed that specializes in drone support and electronic countermeasures.
Also, close air support may be a role that infantry can fulfill on their own now, to some extent, with drone technology. Perhaps we can scale back on some of the more expensive CAS systems for jobs that can be accomplished with drones.
Maybe small hunter-killer drones can be developed whose function is to intercept FPV drones and keep US troops safe from them. I could imagine every squad having these hk drones to buy them some reaction time, if for nothing else than to take cover and call in more support.