Ceasefire violated on day one – what exactly is BTC pricing in right now?

BTC pumped on ceasefire news and is already fading. Looking at what's actually happening on the ground it's hard to see what's sustaining this.

The US-Iran two week ceasefire was announced Tuesday. By Wednesday morning Israel had launched its largest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war started (100 targets in 10 minutes, 254 killed in a single day). Iran accused the US of violating the deal within hours. Gulf states reported drone and missile attacks on oil infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. There have been only 4 dry cargo ships that crossed on day one, no oil tankers. Iran is charging over $1 million per ship and threatening to walk away entirely if Israel doesn't stop bombing Lebanon.

Even if the two weeks somehow hold, the Saturday talks in Islamabad start with Iran demanding sanctions removal, uranium enrichment rights and Hormuz control. The US wants zero enrichment and a permanently open strait. Those positions aren't remotely close. If talks collapse after the ceasefire expires oil probably spikes harder on the breakdown than it did going in.

Add Powell basically admitting private sector job creation is zero, oil still near $100, and inflation about to get another push from energy prices… and this definitely doesn't feel like a macro environment that sustains a rally.

Not trying to be the doom guy here.. Long term still bullish on BTC and the institutional thesis is real. But honestly skeptical these price levels hold while the ceasefire is already fraying and none of the underlying macro issues have moved. Either way I'm still stacking BTC at these levels, just not convinced this rally has legs. If it reverses and we see low $50k I'd probably borrow on Nexo and add more at a discount rather than scrambling to free up cash when the opportunity actually arrives.

Honestly… do you still think there's an actual bull case here beyond short covering?