How should we interpret market calm despite rising yields and rising inflation?

March CPI landed exactly in line with forecasts, offering the first inflation snapshot since the Iran conflict began.

• Headline CPI: 3.3% YoY (up from 2.4%)
• Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (slightly higher)

Despite the acceleration, markets reacted calmly, with equities modestly higher and Treasury yields rising. Crude prices dipped, and the dollar is on pace for a weekly loss.

The broader macro environment has gone quiet into the weekend as attention shifts to Saturday’s ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Open questions:

• How meaningful is the re‑acceleration in headline CPI given the geopolitical backdrop?
• Does an in‑line print reduce the odds of near‑term policy shifts?
• How should we interpret market calm despite rising yields and rising inflation?