Every cycle we talk about the supply shock, but I’m noticing that volatility is increasingly front-run by institutional algorithms months in advance.
Are we reaching a point where the Halving is fully priced in by the time it actually happens? As a developer, I’m seeing more "smart money" infrastructure being built around predicting bot behavior rather than actual supply changes. What’s your take? Is the halving still a factor, or just a scheduled volatility event for the algos?
Is the 'Halving' becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for the bots in 2026?
byu/Henry_old inBitcoin
Posted by Henry_old
3 Comments
The halving is to the point where it’s small enough that it doesn’t make a huge difference at this point. Hell, Strategy alone eats up most newly mined coins. It’s more supply and demand that dictates the market at this point.
Bitcoin’s historical price action is almost entirely explained as a random walk around a power law of network growth. The power law is given by taking the rate of growth of users / wealth in the network (Metcalfe’s Law), multiplied by the increase in value of the network due to the incremental growth given the network use case (money). R^2 over 0.95 implies all the narratives we’ve discussed in the history of this thing meant very little, buy and hold was the best plan almost every step of the way, and it’s especially true today priced at -1 standard dev vs the mean.
>Are we reaching a point where the Halving is fully priced in by the time it actually happens?
If the next halving is priced in, how long before the big players start pricing in the following halving?
You can speculate on the fiat price in the short term but eventually, the new supply keeps reducing while the adoption goes in the opposite direction. Even if the demand stays the same, the supply shock is going to happen.