Phase 0 – Pre-ceasefire escalation Conflict intensifies, uncertainty peaks. Market sells off or becomes highly volatile. Short interest builds as traders expect more downside.
Phase 1 – Rumors / anticipation of ceasefire Leaks or diplomatic signals emerge. Smart money begins covering shorts quietly. Early buyers position for a potential relief rally.
Phase 2 – Ceasefire announced Headline hits. Optimistic buying spikes, but larger players may short into the strength, knowing the deal is fragile.
Phase 3 – Ceasefire breaks / violence resumes News confirms breakdown. Market drops sharply. Shorts from Phase 2 profit. Late longs get trapped.
Phase 4 – Short covering begins Profit-taking on shorts + bargain hunting. Price stabilizes, then starts to rise. Volume may increase.
Phase 5 – Ignore bad news Despite ongoing violence or truce confusion, market trends upward. New investors chase momentum, believing the worst is over.
Phase 6 – Overextended / complacent Price reaches resistance, sentiment too bullish. Shorts begin to rebuild positions quietly.
Phase 7 – Repeat Next catalyst (or lack of one) triggers the next leg down. Cycle resets.
Posted by TorukMaktoM
6 Comments
There wont be any ceasefire and the strait wont open until the western world realises that Israel will never stop and sanction it out of the modern economy, just like muricans did to cuba.
Phase 3 might last a few years.
Sold on Wednesdays, didnt expect the market to keep rising till friday closure but oh well, still hoping to make some profit on Monday morning
Not sustainable. At a certain point, everybody dies.
Any forecast this extended, this detailed, and this confident is unlikely to survive contact with reality. The whole style of it suggests a failure to appreciate how complex, noisy, and path-dependent markets actually are.
I HAVE 675 USO LIKE A DIPSHIT AND OF COURSE SENDING J.D. VANCE TO PAKISTAN WAS GOING TO FAIL.
AWESOME.