Website: cryptoweeklies.com
Hey everyone, I just updated the Bitcoin models on the site to review where we stand from a macro data perspective.
Right now, BTC has officially exited the deep accumulation zone on our composite risk model. Market dominance is heavily concentrated in BTC and ETH, but the data suggests caution as we evaluate historical baseline metrics.
If we track the regression data and historical moving averages, a few key targets emerge:
- Regression Support: The Diminishing Decay model projects a one-standard-deviation support base that is steadily climbing, currently acting as an initial downside target.
- Macro Floor: A two-standard-deviation drop—representing a deep historical panic floor—aligns considerably lower.
- TWAP Baseline: The Time Weighted Average Price continues to rise, but current price action is carrying a heavy premium over this baseline. Historically, the best macro accumulation occurs when the price premium over TWAP drops significantly.
NFA, but accumulating at these elevated risk levels carries different probabilistic weight than buying the deep baseline zones. Let me know what data points you are watching closely.
Posted by CryptoForecast1