I've been working on an ML model that prices options independently from the market, then compares to actual market prices to surface mispricings. Wanted to share since I think some of you might find it useful.

    **What it does:**

    For any ticker, the model computes its own theoretical value (helium_theo) for every listed contract, alongside standard Greeks. It also generates:

    – "Should I buy/sell" probability signals for each contract

    – AI-ranked strategies sorted by expected value

    – Backtested win rates per strategy type (e.g., short vol calls on AAPL: 61% win rate, avg +$8.40/trade over 39 historical trades)

    – Full historical chains with ML pricing baked in

    **Example — NVDA right now:**

    The AI generates 5 probability-weighted scenarios:

    – 38%: Mean-reversion, +0 to +7%, holds 175-185

    – 25%: +10 to +25% on AI/data-center headlines

    – 20%: -5 to -12%, puts stay bid

    – 10%: -20 to -35%, export/H200 shock

    – 7%: +25 to +40%, strong risk-on + upside guidance

    Each scenario has specific falsifiability criteria so you know what would invalidate the thesis.

    **How to access it:**

    It's available for free via the MCP protocol — you add one line to your AI assistant config (Cursor, Claude, etc.) and can query it in natural language. No API key needed for the free tier.

    GitHub: https://github.com/connerlambden/helium-mcp

    Docs: https://heliumtrades.com/mcp-page/

    Curious what you all think. The mispricings between helium_theo and market prices are where I've found the most interesting setups.

    Built a free tool that computes independent ML fair values for every listed options contract
    byu/connerpro inoptions



    Posted by connerpro

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