What VA loan offer looks better?

Option 1:

Principal and Interest: 1985

Origination charges: 431

Rate: 5.625

Option 2:

Principal and Interest: 1904

Origination Charges: 3449

Rate: 5.25

One has a 5.625 but I save $3000 or so in origination fees. The other has 5.25 but has higher origination. The bank with 5.625 estimated if I wanted to do IRRRL in the future with them that closing costs would be about $1900.

Doing the math on saving that $81 a month on the mortgage it would take 38 months to break even on the higher origination charges. What does everyone think? Does my loan officer sound accurate with the potential IRRRL closing costs in the future? He sent me a low estimate for that too to show the costs but it almost sounds too good to be true.