Wondering if you are all also considering all the factors that will force the oil shutdown to lag before it impacts the markets:
– logistical delay of ships from pre-war to reach ports (a month or so)
– tanks and storage from refining companies and on-water stocks of oil (maybe a month? Idk?)
– strategic petroleum reserves (another 9-270 days depending on country, avg is around 90)
– governments possibly shorting oil futures (this has been mentioned by Japan and speculated by the USA, they could possibly foot delivery with SPRs if push came to shove, but this would dry up the reserves faster than rationing them)
– oil wells being shut-in (permanently/semi-permanently reduces gulf capacity in countries like Iraq)
– destroyed infrastructure in gulf nations and reluctance of evacuated human capital to return (this could increase the lag to return to regular production even after a peace deal is reached)
– Russia running out of surplus oil and potentially reducing exports
– US shale oil production lagging expansion of operations due to artificially suppressed oil futures and uncertainty
Any that I missed?
Posted by Careful_Response4694